News in Brief
The Special Phase of the Struggle and the Continuation of our Defense Strategies, Tactics, and Directions (TPLF’s leaked document, dated 10 October 2020), translated from Amharic to English language)
Africa and the African Union
The Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), Moussa Faki Mahamat, condemned the attempted coup in Sudan on Tuesday (September 21). He congratulated the Sudanese on the coup’s failure and stressed the need to adhere to the legitimate authorities.
Staff of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia had a fruitful discussion on Friday (September 29) with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali on the needs of accelerating the implementation of the ideals of the reform process that Ethiopia has been undertaking for the last three years to build a prosperous future for all Ethiopians.
The staff of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia had a fruitful discussion on Friday (September 29) with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali on the need of accelerating the implementation of the ideals of the reform process that Ethiopia has been undertaking for the last three years to build a prosperous future for all Ethiopians.
The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Demeke Mekonnen and his delegation have arrived in New York, US to attend the 76th General Assembly of the United Nations (UN). The 76th UN General Assembly is being held under the theme “Building Resilience through hope to recover from COVID-19, rebuild sustainably, respond to the needs of the planet, respect the rights of people, and revitalize the United Nations.” Spokesperson of Foreign Affairs Ministry, Ambassador Dina Mufti, among others, is included in the Ethiopian delegation that traveled to New York to attend the general assembly.
Demeke Mekonnen, met on Wednesday (September 22) with Under-Secretary-General for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) in New York. During the meeting, Mr. Demeke said some of the observed gaps in the humanitarian aid process in the northern part of Ethiopia should be addressed soon and in a coordinated way that considers the needs of vulnerable people living adjacent to the Tigray region. The two sides noted that the government’s efforts to create a conducive environment for humanitarian aid showed significant improvements in the aid delivery process.
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen has conferred with WFP Executive Director David Beasley on the sidelines of the 76th General Assembly of the United Nations. On the occasion, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke underlined that the government’s commitment in responding to the humanitarian need in northern parts of the country should be given proper recognition.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Demeke Mekonnen, met on Wednesday (September 22) with Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Defence of Ireland, Mr. Simon Coveney, in New York. Mr. Demeke said the misinformation and disinformation campaigns launched against Ethiopia following the unwarranted TPLF attack on the ENDF are the sources of misunderstandings and the improper and unbalanced view on the situation in Ethiopia. The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister appreciated the concerns of the Government of Ireland to the situation in Ethiopia, adding that Ireland would further make efforts to better understand the reality on the ground.
Demeke Mekonnen, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Ethiopia delivering remarks at the 76 sessions of the UN General Assembly (UNGA 76) said, “Migrants are subjected to exploitation, mass deportation, detention, deprived of food in some of the richest countries in Global Policies behind this experience are a result of xenophobia instead of resource scarcity.”
The Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Zhao Lijian, during a press conference on Wednesday (September 22) said China opposes the new US sanctions regime on Ethiopia. He said, “We hope the US will be prudent & play a constructive role. We believe the parties concerned in Ethiopia have the wisdom & capability to properly resolve differences, realize national reconciliation and restore peace & stability.”
The Government of Ethiopia signed a Joint Development Agreement with OCP Group, a Moroccan State-Owned phosphate rock miner, phosphoric acid manufacturer, and phosphate fertilizer producer to implement a fertilizer project in Dire Dawa. The agreement was reached during a high-level delegation visit to Morocco led by Ahmed Shide FDRE Minister of Finance and accompanied by officials from the Ethiopian Chemical Industry Corporation (CIC), the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC), and the Ethiopian Mineral, Petroleum, and Biofuel Corporation (EMPBC).
While attending the High-Level Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network side event at 76th UNGA, the Investment Commissioner, Fistum Assefa reiterated Ethiopia’s commitment to track progress towards its vision of becoming an African beacon of prosperity. Fitsum underlined that Ethiopia is implementing human-centered measures such as the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) which is one of the success indicators on its 10-year development plan. The side event took place under the theme “Envisioning a More Equitable Future: Using Multidimensional Poverty Indices as a Policy Tool”
The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) issued a statement on Sunday (September 19) stating that it was alarmed by disturbing reports it is receiving about allegations of deliberate attacks against civilians in Kobo town and surrounding rural towns by TPLF fighters including shelling on civilian areas, house to house search and killings, looting and destruction of civilian infrastructure. “While EHRC continues with its investigation, it reiterates its repeated call on the obligation of all parties to the conflict to protect civilians at all times.”
Commissioner of the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), Daniel Bekele (PhD) has been honored with the German-Africa Award 2021. The Commissioner has been honored for his outstanding contribution and commitment in the fight for democracy and human rights advocacy in Ethiopia. The prize is the highest award of its kind in Germany. It honors outstanding personalities from the African continent who are committed to peace, reconciliation, and social progress.
An Algerian delegation headed by Mr. Djilani Kobibi Bachir, CEO of Industrial Sidi Bendehiba (GISB) Group is visiting Ethiopia from September 17-24, 2021 for an Investment meeting with Ethio-Engineering Group (EEG) and a series of engagements with governmental and private sector actors. This investment visit, organized by the Ethiopian Embassy in Algiers upon the invitation of the Ethio-Engineering Group, is expected to forge cooperation between GISB & EEG on enhancing production capacity, manufacturing Input supply, technical and technology transfer.
Ethiopia’s Ambassador to the UK, Ambassador Teferi Melesse has a constructive meeting on Wednesday (September 22) with the newly-appointed Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office Africa Minister, Vicky Ford, on various issues. He briefed her on developments in #Ethiopia, including the situation in Tigray, democratization and elections, the progress of homegrown economic reforms, the green legacy initiative, and more.
Newly appointed ambassadors of the European Union and the Arab Republic of Egypt have presented copies of their letters of credentials today to the Director-General of Protocol Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, Mr. Feysel Alyie. Mr. Feysel promised to do his level best in supporting the Ambassadors to make their stay in Ethiopia more fruitful.
H.E Ambassador Demitu Hambisa Bonsa, Ambassador of Ethiopia to Italy met on Wednesday (September 22) with Dr. Qu Dongyu, the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Ambassador Demitu noted the support of FAO for agricultural, development-related, and capacity-building activities in Ethiopia. The two agreed that achieving efficiency in production and innovation are key drivers for transforming the agriculture sector.
In a bid to best exploit & add value to the untapped massive livestock resource in Ethiopia, Djibouti based investors from different African countries have made a three days investment visit last week and hold discussions with high-level government officials, relevant authorities as well as representatives of the private sector in the country. The new Abbatoir will introduce, integrated livestock from the farm to abattoir enhancing the traceability of the animals to best serve European and other high standard markets. The scheme will hugely impact the lives of the farmers and pastoralists, by introducing new concepts and know-how on fattening and feedlot, medications & animal health management as well as high-level abattoir technology while creating employment on the ground.
Ethiopia and Kenya have finally sealed a deal for a free trade area projected to make cross-border business dealings easier. The signing of an operational guiding document, the Moyale One-Stop Border Post Procedure Manual, in Addis Ababa last week is expected to give the neighboring countries a competitive edge with regard to goods traded. The deal seeks to encourage small-scale traders by developing a simplified framework to facilitate their business activities at the border. It will also help to harmonize Kenya and Ethiopia’s trade regimes, particularly on agricultural products, in order to allow citizens from both countries to conduct business beyond the borders.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to make a ruling on the longstanding maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia, a development that is expected to have far-reaching ramifications on the use of Indian Ocean waters claimed by the two nations. Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Mohammed Gulaid revealed that the ICJ has set an October date for determination of the case, which has been a source of diplomatic tensions between Nairobi and Mogadishu since it was filed in 2014. “I am pleased to announce that the ICJ will render a judgment of the case between Somalia v. Kenya on Tuesday 12 October 2021 at the Peace Palace,” said Gulaid on his Twitter account.
After 30 years without the joy of experiencing movies on the big screen, Somalia finally had its first public screening with two short films by director Ibrahim CM. For this momentous event, the National Theatre of Somali was chosen which has been the base for various warlords in the past as well as the target of suicide bombers. “This is going to be a historic night for the Somali people: it shows how hopes have been revived … after so many years of challenges,” theatre director Abdikadir Abdi Yusuf said before the screening. “It’s a platform that provides an opportunity to … Somali songwriters, storytellers, movie directors and actors to present their talent openly.”
The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somalia’s National Army (SNA) launched a center this week to better coordinate their fight against al-Shabab militants, who have threatened to disrupt Somalia’s elections. The Joint Operations Coordination Center at AMISOM Sector One headquarters in Mogadishu was officially launched on Wednesday (September 22) at a ceremony presided over by the army chief of defense forces, General Odowaa Yusuf Rageh, and the AMISOM deputy force commander in charge of operations and planning, Major General William Kitsao Shume. There are currently more than 20,000 peacekeepers in the country, trying to keep Somalis secure from attacks by al-Shabab and Islamic State.
The Armed Forces announced the abortion of a coup attempt that took place on Tuesday (September 21), at dawn. Brigadier General Al- Taher Abu Haja, media advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, said in a statement to SUNA that the armed forces thwarted the coup attempt and that the situation is under full control.
The Council of Ministers has issued a press statement expressing its appreciation for the stance of the international community and friendly and sisterly countries towards the failed coup attempt. Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok received calls and messages denouncing the coup and affirming support for the democratic transition in the country, from leaders of various countries, including the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy Ahmed.
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir says there is no need for continued fighting in the young nation, three years after his government signed a peace deal with rival factions. Kiir, his main political rival Riek Machar and other parties signed a revitalized peace agreement mediated by the regional bloc (IGAD) in September 2018 to end more than five years of civil war. An estimated more than 400,000 people were killed and millions displaced as a result of the violent conflict which erupted in 2013. Addressing a group of elders on Sunday, however, the South Sudanese leader said he is disturbed by the continuous loss of lives and destruction of properties and authorized his security affairs advisor, Tut Gatluak Manime among others to speak to the splinter group of the armed opposition (SPLM/A-IO) in the Magenis area. “I have told Riek Machar this thing [fighting in Magenis] needs to stop and let us organize talks”, Kiir told the elders at his residence.
Ambassador Nebil Mahdi met with Michael Makuei, Information, Communication Technology, and Postal Services Minister of the Republic of South Sudan on Friday (September 17), and discussed issues of common concern. During the occasion, the ambassador expressed his appreciation of President Salva Kiir’s concern for the peace and stability of Ethiopia and his initiative to play a mediator role on the Ethio-Sudan border dispute as well as on internal issues. The Minister, on his part, said Ethiopia’s support to South Sudanese has been consistent and the people of both countries have been enjoying good relations since time immemorial. Appreciating Ethiopia’s genuine support in the South Sudanese peace agreement, as well as in capacity building and others, the minister underscored that his country does not allow its territory, land or air, to be used against Ethiopia.
The Special Phase of the Struggle and the Continuation of our Defense Strategies, Tactics, and Directions (TPLF’s leaked document, dated 10 October 2020), translated from Amharic to English language) (Volume – two)
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3
Part One: New Developments in the International, National and regional Political Landscape 4
1.1 ….. Developments in The International and Regional Situation in Relation to Our Country ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
1.1.1 New Developments in the International and Regional Arena ………………………………….. 4
1.1.2 New phenomena in the region …………………………………………………………………………………. 9
1.2. New developments in national conditions …………………………………………………………………………..11
1.2.1. A new developments in an enemy condition …………………………………………………………. 11
1.2.2. Further Points and Events in ethnicities, nationalities and peoples …………………….. 16
1.2.3. In the case of elections and national political events/ facts. …………………………………. 18
1.2.4 Important Political conclusion on National Situation/Reality……………………………….. 20
1.3.2. The Tigray Election that turned the page to a New Political Chapter ……………………. 24
1.3.3. Opportunity and risks in defending Tigray ……………………………………………………………. 27
Part Two: Strategies, Tactics, and Directions for Continuing the struggle …………………………….. 29
2.1. The dominant origins of our strategies, tactics and directions ………………………………………..29
2.2 Transforming Tigray’s defense capacity to an irreversible level ……………………………………………..32
2.2.1 A Strategy to strengthen Tigray Defense …………………………………………………………………….. 32
2.2.2 Identify and coordinate enforcement tactics and directions …………………………………… 33
22.214.171.124 Identify and coordinate political tactics and directions ………………………………………….. 33
2.2.3. A Tigray which has built a comprehensive institutional capacity (De-facto Tigray) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 46
2.3. Destroying the enemy and initiating the country’s new reform for the benefit of Tigray …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….47
2.3.1. Campaign to defeat the enemy ……………………………………………………………………………….. 47
2.3.2 What can we learn from the world and specific countries? ……………………………………. 62
2.3.3. What does the future hold for Ethiopia and People of Tigray? ………………………………. 69
2.3.4. Final Solution to Tigrean people’s sustainable/continued benefit/advantage! Never again1 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 71
The Special phase of the struggle and the continuation of our defense strategies, tactics, and directions
We, the militants who are leading our people in this inimitable stage of struggle have been striving for the people’s enlightenment, by making explicit our questions, the objectives and, the appropriateness of our struggle, we have been defending the challenges we faced with endurance. Over the past two and a half years, the Ethiopian people in general and Tigray people in particular, have faced a tragic incident still we are in this challenge. However, it is indispensable that we continue to serve with our struggle and perseverance. Our struggle and defense so far make us models for other people and consequently, we have got more followers and partners. Yet, we still find ourselves in difficulties, we have become a key force in changing circumstances and to have the full potential for our current necessities.
On one hand, the escalation of our enemy’s internal conflict, political, economic, and democratic alienations are widespread, especially as it is increasingly isolated from nations, nationalities, and peoples. Now our enemy is confused. It has no backbone. It has no supporters. It is an illegal force that should not remain in power after October 5. On the other hand, in desperation, our enemy will defiantly try to take destructive action. In an effort to prolong their life, they may try to take a destructive course of action. On the contrary, we have respected the constitution, held historic elections, established a legitimate government, and raised our defense to a higher standing.
As a result, the battle against the enemy in all of its forms has reached a tipping point. We have reached a point where it is time to move on to strategic attacks to toss and bury the opponent in a short amount of time. We’ve arrived at the most difficult and final step. The clock is ticking. We can’t wait if we want to. The nature of the conflict is shifting. We can no longer maintain the status quo. As a result, we’ve arrived at a stage where we must carefully assess the issue, make a decision, and endure. We can’t afford to make a blunder. Our victory in the face of adversity is preparing us for a new challenge and struggle.
Our election victory has posed not only a challenge to the national battle but also brought internal issues to Tigray. This document is based on the evolution of a specific phase of the struggle that we have witnessed in the past, as well as subsequent new developments, the path forward, and the future direction we will pursue. Several things have changed since our last discussion, and we’ve moved on to a critical chapter. As a result, new questions arise that must be addressed. Where are we going after this? How can we overthrow the enemy? After the downfall of Abiy’s team, what will be the next step? What is the lasting solution? What will happen to Tigray in the long run? Have become key questions for our people, our leadership, and our members. These are questions that need to be asked and answered.
As a result, the purpose of this strategic document is to assess the existing situation and provide answers to the questions raised above. It is divided into two sections. The first segment evaluates our current defense and progress. The second section outlines our next strategy, tactics, and battle plan. This part is responsible for answering the forum’s mission and critical questions, as well as identifying, coordinating, and refining the greatest ideas. Specific concerns can be worked out later once the essential ideas and principles of this paper have been agreed upon.
Part One: New Developments in the International, National, and regional Political Landscape
1.1 Developments in The International and Regional Situation in Relation to Our Country
1.1.1 New Developments in the International and Regional Arena
We have continued, as we have in the past, to assess the impact of changes in the international situation on our country. Because we cannot consider ourselves independent of regional and worldwide political situations, the present global order has been at the heart of many of our discussions. As we have seen in our case, when changes in the global political environment have a detrimental impact on their well-being, nations, especially the West, act extremely strongly. Similarly, we must constantly monitor and analyze developments in global politics in order to adjust our positions to capitalize on opportunities and avoid dangers.
It is important to assess the international situation in the short term. It is also valuable to forecast future changes. Furthermore, when countries, particularly neighboring countries, contact us, they bring not just their interests but also the interests of their powerful masters. As a result, we must anticipate that our diplomatic relations with this country to be very complicated. So for this and other reasons, we need to regularly keep ourselves abreast of the situation.
We have seen that the economic downturn in the past, especially the Covid-19, and the competition, which has taken on more and more forms of competition, have shifted to a higher level. Strategic transition and change will inevitably bring great opportunities and challenges to nations and peoples. There will be opportunities to take advantage of the opportunities and create greater technological potential that will reduce the risks and create huge economic benefits. One of the ideas that we need to transform Tigray in 25 years hopes to take advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead and to adapt to the challenges we face, as big changes will inevitably take place around the world. With this in mind, we need to take a long-term view of the medium and short-term developments. For now, however, we will focus on the short-term performance of the current national situation and the key issues that have arisen.
Westerners, especially the US government, have been trying to increase their dominance in Africa. Especially in our region, they have been working to create dominant regional allies. They have continued to arm these forces. This aligns with the West’s strategic shift to cope with the global turmoil the Covid-19 pandemic has caused and the desire to re-adjust rules of globalization in order to protect their strategic interests. The Chinese desire to control Africa and Russia’s recently moved to strengthen relations with South Africa and the US has been working extensively to implement a containment strategy for China and Russia.
To this end, the West has tried to influence and dominate the biggest and most populous country in the region, Ethiopia. They wanted someone who can carry out their mission. In Abiy they found a willing horse whom they can ride to carry out their mission. However, the Western countries have discovered over time that the reforms they advocated have been imperiled. They have realized that Abiy cannot advance their interests. Abiy’s interests and the West’s interests are misaligned. Let alone executing their agenda, Abiy can’t hold on to his power for long. They do not want to ride a dead horse. Thus, the West is looking for a new partner who can carry out its mission. One of the most important strategic development lies here.
There are other reasons why the enemy (Abiy) is rapidly losing acceptance in the West. As we all know, the next American election season has begun. President Donald Trump is doing his best to win the next election. One of the key election agendas he hopes will get him votes is the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. By ensuring Israel’s security on the lands it controls and establishes a statehood for Palestinians on what remains, he wants to be the President that makes history by resolving this long-existing conflict between Israel and Palestine.
In order to implement this election strategy, he needs the support of Arab countries. To realize Donald Trump’s interest and Israel’s interests Arab countries were important. Egypt was the primary choice to fulfill the mission of convincing and influencing Arab countries. When the Egyptians accepted this assignment, in return, they have asked the Trump administration to intervene on their behalf on the issue of the Renaissance Dam dispute with Ethiopia. Donald Trump’s administration responded to the Egyptian requests positively. Under the pretext of ‘observer’, the Americans and the World Bank have tried to ensure the Egyptian side wins on the dispute over the GERD.
The American’s commanding Abiy to resolve things on the GERD was not the only request they had. They also wanted him to facilitate a good relationship between Sudan and other Arab countries and Israel. Abiy accepted their plan by saying, “Leave this to me, I will do it.” However, Abiy failed to accomplish both of these missions. Fearing widespread opposition from the Ethiopian people if he accepted the American’s deal on the Renaissance Dam, he has failed to accept the deal. The Sudanese didn’t listen to him, let alone act on what he asked them to do. However, he offended the Americans by lying about convincing the Sudanese. Because of this reason, his relationship with the Trump administration and his credibility have been severely damaged. They now consider him a meaningless force. Thus, the support of the Abiy group in the United States is virtually non-existent.
Moreover, Democrats are likely to be elected in the next election. The US election is hard to predict, but Biden is still leading. If Biden is elected, Obama’s key people are expected to come to power. Although these people have similar views on the reform, their position on the current situation in Ethiopia seems to be better. We will have the opportunity to build a better relationship with them. In connection with this, the Oromo movement in some US states could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election. They are actively supporting Biden in particular. As a result, even after Donald Trump, Abiy will not be supported by the Americans. Basically, the United States puts its own interests at the forefront, so it is unlikely that they will put all their interests in one box. Moreover, due to the ongoing anti-Abiy movement abroad and the humanitarian crisis in the country, many in the international community are adopting an anti-Abiy stance.
The ongoing opposition of members of the US Congress, the ICG, Freedom House, and some celebrities, etc., is greatly reducing Abiy’s reformist credibility. Abiy is isolated. In light of these new facts, the United States does not want to continue with Abiy. Just because they do not want to continue with Abiy does not mean that they will stop the reform process, they just want other options to continue the reform.
In Europe, most countries are worried that the country is collapsing. They fear that the Horn of Africa as a whole will suffer because of the instability in Ethiopia. They are concerned that the growing instability could lead to a major refugee crisis. They are losing hope in Abiy’s leadership because of the widespread human rights violations at home and the protests against him abroad. They are beginning to give ear to our position and the solution. As a result, many European countries and the Far-Eastern countries are interested in meeting with us outside of Ethiopia. Both the EU and other European countries are now pushing for deeper dialogue and negotiations. They took the position that dialogue is the solution. They hope the dialogue and negotiation achieve their interests in Africa.
Following this, there may be a situation where they say ‘Do this and don’t do that’. Fundamentally, no solution comes from a negotiation led by Westerners. As usual, they will try to have a continuous, extended, and tedious negotiation and, as we have seen in other cases. They see peace negotiations and dialogues as deployment and job creation opportunities for their international institutions and citizens.
Nonetheless, this is what is coming as a solution. In light of this fact, on the one hand, we have to support the increasing opposition to the Abiy government. On the other hand, we will work out a clear negotiation strategy that will not hinder the short and long-term interests of Tigray. We will act based on establishing our irreconcilable differences. Our strategy in this regard will be discussed in detail later, but our legitimacy has increased to some extent following our last two years’ struggle and the recent election we conducted that has attracted the attention of the whole world. They are saying, Ethiopia’s problem cannot be solved by isolating TPLF and the people of Tigray. If we work hard to develop our bargaining power in the future and to increase our demand, the benefits of negotiating may outweigh its disadvantages. Overall, the West’s position on Abiy is conducive to our struggle.
The situation in the Middle East cannot be seen in isolation from the global reality. It is an area of widespread crisis that even the superpowers failed to resolve. The alignment of these countries has changed the geo-political situation in the Horn of Africa. Since Westerners are preoccupied with their internal affairs, the Gulf States have been allowed to free ride in the Horn of Africa. The United States has been working on behalf of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to implement its security strategy. They are working closely in the US election. We have already seen the role of Abiy in the above discussion. As a result, his friendly relations with these countries have weakened; it is an extension of his failure to agree on the GERD. The Arabs accepted Egypt’s idea of the Renaissance Dam and they were able to stand against Abiy.
The initial support and cooperation from both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have stopped. He isn’t getting the promised support. So as things stand now, the enemy (Abiy) is completely isolated.
One of the conclusions we draw from this is that countries are losing faith in Abiy’s government and he is alienated. The second important point is that they want him to take the initiative to solve the problem through negotiations. The third point is that there is a minimum possibility that they will intervene if we took the last and decisive move to destroy the enemy.
Apart from verbal threats, proxies and sanctions their threats will not amount to anything to derail our plans. Moreover, if we have increased our capacity, they may find us as an important force in the region. But that does not mean there are no challenges. They want to replace Abiy, not the reform. The negotiated solution they propose, especially if the West is involved, is going to mire us in a prolonged dispute with them. To be blunt the West’s hatred and skepticism of our ideological stand have always been a challenge. In general, we can conclude at this point that the enemy (Abiy) is increasingly isolated. There is no better time and a conducive environment for us to execute our final plans.
1.1.2 New phenomena in the region
Over the years, we have seen the Horn of Africa’s geo-political and evolving situation in the Red Sea become a major influence in the world. Conflict and humanitarian crises in the horn are on the rise and the situation in the Red Sea region is directly aggravating this. The change in the red sea geopolitics is making the horn of Africa a crisis zone and complicating preexisting problems. As the internal conditions of the horn countries change, relations with larger countries also change. The interests of superpowers and the Gulf States in the neighboring countries are affecting us both positively and negatively. Therefore relationship with neighboring countries is not only related to their national interest but also with that of superpowers and Arab countries. We must realize that the change here is crucial to our relationship.
Rivalry over religious, political, economic, diplomatic, military, and security issues poses a serious threat to the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Horn of Africa countries, on the one hand, are being victims of the competition between the Gulf States, and on the other, are using the competition to solve their internal political and economic problems. As a result, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are the battlegrounds of the mighty, and the Horn of Africa is being forced to take sides. Meanwhile, the struggle to seize control of the red sea at the hands of the client state has now intensified. Most IGAD member states have fallen into the hands of Arab states in search of financial support and a partner country. The internal vulnerability created by the organization has also exposed it to the intervention of foreign forces.
This shows that the crisis in the Horn of Africa makes it an area that is prone to large-scale intervention by foreign powers. These situations may certainly bring blessings or disguises to us. One important point, however, is the big role of Esayas and Abiy in weakening IGAD and complicating problems of the region. As a result, most of the countries in our region are losing touch with Ethiopia and calling the government the current obstacle. And, African Union has no influential leader. They cease their hope with the country and are hesitating to move their capital to other African countries.
In such a case, it is important to summarize the situation of our neighboring countries with us. We already said much that Sudan is our key partner due to economic, political, and security advantages. Although our interest is highly interlinked with theirs, on one hand, normalization of its relationship with Israel, sanctions lifted by the US, and more consensus among opposing groups may create a better condition, on the other hand, it is safe to assume that the US entry into Sudan will complicate our work in the face of severe economic crisis and instability in Sudan. Besides, Abiy is working to tackle our move starting from the embassy. He is deploying a lot of manpower in Sudan, including at the embassy to track our every move. Sudan’s interest is strong in resolving the border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan. Abiy aims to create a chasm between Sudan and us; he said that the border dispute can be resolved gradually by starting from Tigray and continue with other areas. They are working with the EPLF to deprive us of entry and exit. Of course, Sudan realizes the conspiracy and did not accept it. Thus, Sudan still has a positive role for us; and they want to work with us in the future. It is important not only for entry and exit but also its role for our political work in other parts of Ethiopia is irreplaceable.
The relationship between Djibouti and the dictatorship is still strained and no new progress has been made. Their beneficial relationship with China, our common stand against Esayas, and their view of our struggle for the past two years make Djibouti strive to work and cooperate with us. The Federal Government of Somalia has a relationship with Abiy as it was, and no one wants to work with Abiy in the regions. Puntland, Somaliland, Juba Land are all opposed to Abiy. Their desire to work and connect with us is great. Abiy’s relationship with Kenya is also blurred. In general, Abiy has no good relationship in the region; in contrast, many neighboring countries want to work with us. Promising conditions are emerging.
In Eritrea, we have evaluated our relationship in our last review. Our evaluation stated that Esayas’ group is involved in Ethiopia and is working to weaken the TPLF and Tigray. We have also evaluated Abiy and Esayas have formed a political and military front to destroy us. They are working on the principle that the survival of one depends on the survival of the other. They are trying to do different kinds of subversive work, military cooperation, intelligence network, security agents, and assassination network. Even though they did not succeed, they have been trying their best. As long as Isaias exists and is capable, he will work to destroy the TPLF. So Isaias is still the clear and the main enemy of the present.
On the other hand, there is a growing public outcry in Eritrea’s anti-Isaias group. Political groups are saying: “we must work with the TPLF and the Tigrayan government”. Even if we look at the recent past, those Eritreans who believed it was a betrayal to work with “Woyane” are now changing their minds. The Eritrean youth movement has started because of the growing hatred of the Eritrean people against Isaias . Support of Eritreans in the locust infestation we faced is one growing example of our rapprochement. The Eritrean army is also raising questions. The question is whether they should go to war with Tigray.
For our part, there is some work to be done to bring about some improvements in the past and focus on better support. Eritrea is a neighboring country, but the work on Isaias ‘s group cannot be only diplomatic. It should include, therefore, security, political, and other areas of operations to defend Tigray.
1.2. New developments in national conditions
1.2.1. New developments in an enemy condition
About six months ago, on the one hand, we put that, this unitary dictatorship was violently suppressing the struggle of the people; one man dictatorship situation is becoming apparent; and while it’s moving on a downward spiral, that its ability to act is becoming strong. On the other hand, we have undoubtedly concluded that his character and identity are becoming apparent, that the struggle of the people is intensifying, and that this force will be defeated in the not-too-distant future.
The enemy using massive force and oppression had temporarily halted the mass violence and struggle that began in October and November 2019. It has turned many parts of the country under military rule and has resorted to unscrupulous anti-people activities to suppress the people’s struggle. And use the situation as such an opportunity that the election will not take place on time and it has decided to stay in power illegally. It is forcefully crushing those who do not accept this decision and potential obstacles and it completely turned to commit absolute anti-democratic acts. On the other hand, as the identity of this unitary and dictatorial group is being exposed, peoples and ethnicities are seeing it in broad daylight and are coming to the right conclusion. They have come to conclude that there is no alternative but to fight and overthrow this force. As a result, widespread protests and struggles have intensified since last June, particularly in Oromia and elsewhere.
In this tactical forum, the basic lineup of forces in Ethiopia is on the one hand new and existing national general forces (Unitarians) and on the other hand ethnicities, nationalities, and peoples. It is the struggle between these two that clearly stands out. We have come to the point where the situation has come to such a clear line-up and where the struggle process took a clear look. This dictatorial unitary group is becoming isolated from the people; its legitimacy and capacity are declining due to the opposition and struggle it is facing from the people. Differences in the ruling party are widening and their inability to work together is growing. Especially after the death of Hachalu, if we take Shimeles’ words, it is clear that inevitable in the ruling class is evident.
It is an assessment that we have already identified that the temporary alliance between chauvinism and narrow-mindedness can be dismantled. This natural conflict, inheritance contradiction, is becoming increasingly evident. The rift in the party and the rent-seeking investors and scholars is widening. In most parts of the country, the structure of the prosperity party is collapsing, declining, and being isolated from the people. Not only the structure of the group but also its supporters are being isolated and are leaving. At this time, a situation where it can be unified and govern is on the brink. Atrocities and kidnappings that
are taking place in all areas in order to expand the regime’s chances are fueling the ongoing struggle of the people. Moreover, it is an event that is conducive to transform gradual change into an all-encompassing transformation and an opportunity to defeat and throw the enemy. It is easy to conclude that the current political situation is one in which the enemy has fallen into disarray and can be subjected to total distortion and destruction.
If we look at the economic situation, the problem is getting worse. The country’s economy, which has run without a leader for the last two and a half years, is declining at an unprecedented rate. The enemy by removing the existing developmental policy implemented a new supply economy, which is prescribed by others (foreigners). The policy stands against the city’s poor and farmers, completely excludes the majority of the population from the economy, and provides ample opportunity for the donors and the prescribers of the policy. Fundraising for ‘Gebeta lehager’, the construction of the waterfall, the construction of Unity Park, the construction of Entoto Park, and the development of the Addis Ababa City Rivers and other glittering projects are a manifestation of a flawed policy. Moreover, it is putting the country’s wealth under the control of Western companies. Evidently, the Ethiopian economy is now a network economy. It is under the control of certain dependent authorities, investors, and foreigners. Even most of the bank loans are given to the Amhara elite. The import and export business is controlled by these few people and whole manufacturing companies are turning to a gambling economy.
Various institutions are making their economic forecasts for the 2012E.C. fiscal year. According to the IMF, in 2020. Ethiopia is projected to grow by 1.9 percent. And it is projected to be 0 in 2021. Therefore, the economic situation of this country is at a critical stage. As a result, inflation has been rising steadily. Inflation has worsened at the national level, particularly in connection with the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the Ethiopian Central Statistics Authority, inflation reached 21.5% and 22.3%, respectively, last June and July. There are virtually no exports at this time. Existing investments are closing. New investments have no interest. In particular, foreign direct investment (FDI) declined by a staggering 19.4% in 2012. As a result of the problems described above, foreign exchange is in serious trouble. It will continue to be an unsolvable problem in the future. In connection with this, Ethiopia’s current debt has reached 28.7 billion dollars. In 2019/20 alone, it showed an increase of $ 1.7 billion. In contrast, debt repayment capacity decreased by 2.4% that same year. As a result, more debt is being accumulated every year and on the contrary, debt repayment is declining every year.
The state of financial supply is also in jeopardy. At the national level, the annual growth rate of banks has dropped to 16 percent in 2012, the lowest in the last 10 years. Similarly, the annual growth rate of banks’ supply of finance to the economy has declined from 23.2% in 2018/19 to 20.9% in 2019/20. Moreover, there are a growing number of people who are losing their trust in the government and are taking out their money to foreign countries. There is also an increasing number of people holding their cash in their houses. The enemy has been trying to solve the problem by creating more problems. Instead of leading and motivating the economy, he is trying to solve the problem by using the advice (monetary policy) he received from Isaias. Recent restrictions on the amount of money that can be withdrawn from a bank, the amount of money that can be taken out of the bank and the measure to change money can be an example of this. These measures taken by the enemy are described by many scholars in the field as a “zero reason economy”. If we forget the other issues, spending 3.9 billion birr on printing a new currency is huge. While this country is in dire economic straits and high cost of living, spending so much money can never have a reasonable economic decision. Thus, it is clear that the change in money is more than just economic, it is political.
As we have seen, today we are moving to the point where eating and not eating is the main topic in Ethiopia instead of talking about development. The current political crisis is having a major impact on the economy. At the same time, the enemy’s alternative that leads to suffering disaster will likely strike in the near future. Starving people cannot be locked up and die. This and other political factors may cause the people to become involved in the struggle. The people could not afford to travel long distances. It is more likely for the people to take down the enemy with him. So in this case, it turned the enemy upside down.
Another important point is that in terms of diplomacy, the enemy is being isolated from both Western and regional governments. There is no support as there was in the past and it did not receive the promised support. They (foreigners) are concluding that Abiy is in danger because the Ethiopian people have not accepted the proposed reforms. It is largely despised by neighboring countries, with the exception of the Somali central government and Isaias’s group. The impact of the ongoing struggle abroad is also significant. Various governmental and non-governmental organizations are officially referred to the enemy as the “killer”. While the impact of the West’s skepticism on us is not insignificant, our struggle over the past two years and the recent successful elections have allowed us to be considered as a potential change agent in this area and to increase our demand in the region. In this regard, the decline of his (Abiy’s) legitimacy, the acceptance of our struggle, and the entire Ethiopian people is making the external situation favorable for the next fight against the enemy.
Developments around security and peace are another important issue. At this time, there is no peace in most parts of the country. Conflict, violence, massacres, and arrests have intensified. Massacre of protesters, a massacre of civilians is being carried out by the security forces. In Oromia, South (Wolayita and Sidama), Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, daily life is a nightmare. This anti-people force is primarily using its security structure. Paramilitary forces gathered in each region are also coming to slaughter the people. Deference force is doing what it is told to do. In Oromia, in particular, the paramilitary forces, like the foreign powers, are looting, raping women, and shooting young people in public. What could be more treason, prejudice, anti-people? As a result of such actions, the public is losing faith in the security apparatus. As a result, there is a growing sense of frustration with national defense.
However, the enemy’s power in this regard has not yet been weakened. It is trying to change the situation by using force. Of course, it is the security apparatus that is keeping the enemy alive. It is making great strides around the security establishment in order to maintain its long-term existence. The enemy by being suspicious of its commitment to do what it is ordered to do is trying to replace the old defense force, especially the force that is situated in Tigray (Northern Command), with a new one. At the national level, a large number of new forces have been introduced to train to change the existing power. It is also strengthening the Republican forces it has already begun organizing. The paramilitary forces in Oromia are also being armed and strengthened in all its forms. They are also doing similar work in Amhara. Isaias’s force was also brought into the country. The support that is being provided through training, intelligence, and manpower increase the enemy’s potential. From this, the enemy has not yet been weakened by military support. This is where it relies upon. Of course, the change in other areas is also determined by this military wing. If the balance of power needs to be changed, then disruptions in the political, economic, and diplomatic processes need to have the same effect on the military. So it requires a lot of important work in this regard. Our priority should be the defense force and the use of all sorts of alternatives to prevent it from continuing to be a tool of the enemy.
1.2.2. Further Points and Events in ethnicities, nationalities, and peoples
Ethiopians are currently demanding and battling for identity, democracy, peace, and development, among other things. As a result of these inquiries, new issues and inconsistencies emerge. According to the majority of ethnicities and ethnic groups, this force in power is ‘Neftegna’ and unitary. The majority of nations and nationalities, if not all, have concluded that Abiy is untrustworthy, deceitful, manipulative, and anti-citizen. No matter what he says, no one will trust him. They’ve also gotten to the point where he is committing acts of violence without restraint. People are learning from their mistakes and coming to the correct conclusion. They’ve thus progressed to unfettered acts of violence. The conflict between people’s rights and dictatorial rule is gathering traction. There is widespread agreement that the core of this conflict will not be peaceful; the door to peace has been shut, and they are preparing for it. People who are willing to fight and pay the price for the struggle have been reinforced in this regard.
Every day since last summer, the people’s struggle has manifested and strengthened new occurrences. In most regions, recent urban riots have been joined by the rural community, primarily farmers, and are now affecting the entire population. The people own the battle that has been and continues to be waged in Oromia, which is growing in both type and size. The “Qerroo” movement is a grassroots movement led by ordinary people. It will not be able to return. The entire population is battling together with their children. The majority of them are sacrificing their lives inside to fight the dictatorship. The diaspora is also better organized than it has ever been. Militants in Benishangul-Gumuz have entered the jungle with their weapons, utilizing traditional weaponry, and fought security troops in a series of battles. Gambella is no different. There is a serious possibility of armed struggle in Oromia Qerroo and OLF Shane, Amhara Kemise and Kemant, Benishangul, Gambella, Afar, and elsewhere, in addition to the present insurgency.
Civil instability in the South, particularly in Wolayita, is likely to worsen in the coming months. The adversary, though he tries to disturb our tranquility from afar, he is unable to do so. The government system in Amhara has nearly crumbled in many districts. There will be no peace, no growth if there is no order under command. In addition, the challenge in other areas is not insignificant. As a result, the Amhara people are growing increasingly angry and bitter. on the other hand, what is more, important in the Amhara region is people in Kemant, Agew, and the border areas, are struggling in the same way as everyone else.
The enemy, In Afar though he try to disrupt our peace he could not manage it. In Amhara, the structure of government has almost collapsed in many areas. No order under command, no peace, no development. Moreover, the challenge in other areas is also considerable. As a result, the people of Amhara are becoming frustrated and resentful. Primarily, however, the people in Kemant, Agew, border areas are struggling in the same way as other peoples. The position and principled struggle of the people of Tigray and the TPLF has been playing a key role in the struggle and support of the people. As a result, many people wish to join us in our fight against collaboration. Even if they have different ideas and beliefs, they wish to have a shared belief in the effort to overturn Abiy’s group in the future.
The movement, however, continues to lack well-organized and effective leadership. The original capacity has been significantly harmed. The adversary is scattering and arresting people who led or were assumed to lead the movement. They were unable to descend and lead and coordinate the march of the people. They remain vulnerable in the process. The fight, particularly in Oromia, will shift in both shape and size as a result of the leadership vacuum. Others are in the same boat. The people’s struggle is not adequately coordinated at the national level. The enemy was able to live due to a lack of favorable cultural conditions. A major Shift has not been possible due to the unsolved problem. Our move to full-fledged attack hasn’t gone well. Although the pace is slowing, the current condition is at the intended level. As a result, we must concentrate on developing the movement that we have started to address this issue, and we must be cognizant of our responsibility in doing so.
1.2.3. In the case of elections and national political events/ facts.
The adversary decided five months ago that elections could not be held because of the virus, and that they would stay in power eternally. COVID 19 was clearly not the cause. He took advantage of the circumstance, realizing that he couldn’t hold on to power in a credible manner owing to the continued social unrest and conflict, and he used it to extend his authority. So, why did he wait 5 months to vote this year? The fact that Abiy’s team has indicated that the election would take place has forced them to seek a solution. Both internally and externally, this pressure is mounting. Internal pressure is an important issue to consider. The Ethiopian people’s mobilization in Tigray and the influence it has had on the international community in order to prolong the September resistance, which declares Abiy to be an illegitimate administration, is crucial. As a result, he postponed the election in order to slow down the current insurrection, prevent future bloodshed and conflict, and ensure that he survives these difficulties. The election has been accepted not because there is a reasonable prerequisite for holding it, but rather because he believes it must be held. It was staged as a premeditated drama to derail the struggle and shift the agenda.
In this regard, he is disbanding and scattering the opposition’s leadership and structures in Oromia from top to bottom. He intends to maintain power through the use of force, money, intimidation, rigging elections, and manipulation, rather than through popular support. The key is that he did it to avoid the traps of September and October. Aside from that, he is attempting to collaborate with the businesses that he owns and operates. In Amhara, the prosperity party organization is dwindling, and he is now attempting to collaborate with NAMA. He is hiding in Oromia, misleading some of them. This form of drama also serves to weaken and detract from the ongoing struggle. Basically, it was a decision made after a long struggle that puts him in a difficult predicament.
The second reason is the influence of foreign powers on the fact that the election is better than the crisis without elections, and that the consequences of going to war with Tigray are partially understood by his advisers and observers. As a result, he was compelled to announce the date of the election before September 25. What will it bring to future political events/facts remains to be seen. However, it has a significant impact by cooling down the struggle of nations, ethnicities, and peoples.
If we don’t figure out why this is happening, we’ll be in a lot of trouble. Simultaneously, we stated that the struggle itself has a leadership problem due to a lack of general leadership. The enemy’s attacks on the struggle are harsh. As a result, if an election is held, there may be a propensity to overlook the struggle in the belief that the election will be used to gain power. This can be hazardous in a variety of ways. At the national level, not only may the struggle be reversed, but the problem can also be accumulated and brought to Tigray. As a result of our awareness of the issues, we must design ways to overthrow the enemy well before it held national elections.
Foreign entities may question, “What are you saying then?” if he declares that an election will be held. As a result of this, they will begin and strengthen their pressure on us to engage in discussions. They may try to resolve the issue with the majority of political groups by providing money and a power-sharing arrangement, as they have in some African countries. The majority of other political actors could be deceived and misled as a consequence of this. As a result, the task will not be easy. By causing us to spend time in a whirlwind, this will reverse the struggle that has got us to this vital moment.
We have elected and established a legitimate government. He declared that it was not a legal election. On the other hand, after September, we are saying you are not legal. We now have an open and public position. We have recalled our federally appointed manpower. Moreover, we are fighting for a clear solution to the problem. The enemy will not accept this. So we are now in the midst of a complete confrontation. He does everything in his power to degrade us, to put us in a quandary. He is trying to create internal rifts among us. Through his traitors and messengers, he works hard with Isaias ’ team. We will see what some of the competing political organizations in Tigray have to say about the upcoming election. Some in the (Tigray) opposition might decide to act against us if they get the support they needed, which may become their demise.
In order to ensure his survival, he might use many options to try to get us into trouble. He can start with soft power in advance. As the House of Federation decision passed currently that says “the federal government should not have relations with the Tigray government”. He said there will be no connection other than the return of basic development and basic services to the people, and he will not provide a budget. We understand the details of what this means and let the public know. Next, in terms of infrastructure, he will close the entrances and exits and create obstacles in other areas. This general decision can be applied as desired. It can then be transferred to the military. If he thinks he can, he can do both at the same time. On the other hand, he may not do all of this. If we create a challenge and the circumstances change in the first place, we can make him do things according to our plan. And if we succeed, we can make the enemy unhinged. In any case, there may be events related to the election. Therefore, the confusion that can be caused by choice in the fight to defeat the enemy should be one of our main focuses. The center of all our work must be moving the people of Ethiopia, both to prevent a slowdown and to move out of the current trap. The nature of the struggle must be changed.
1.2.4 Important Political conclusion on National Situation/Reality
In the above section, we discussed global situations in line with our struggle, enemy’s situation, Ethiopian peoples’ struggle, election, and issues related to our country’s next political fate. Based on the existing situation and the pieces of evidence we see, we can conclude that our struggle is sliding into a critical chapter. This is the right year, month, day, and hour for destroying our enemy. We cannot live side by side with this enemy. As a nation, we are in a difficult challenge too. This country may crumble in the presence of this dictator or after him. The long-lasted peaceful struggle is also being no longer an option. We are forced to choose another option rather than a peaceful struggle.
The ever-increasing opposition is not bad, but it should bring about radical change through critical struggle. The enemy is confused in many aspects. This confused enemy should be destroyed without delay. On the currently existing economic crisis, with the Oromo opposition growing and consolidating, with other opposition leaders, nations, and nationalities questioning the legitimacy of the enemy, we may make the short-term collapse of the enemy inevitable. If we could organize and work on our struggle in all aspects of political, military, and diplomacy, it will play a vital role in bringing change at the national level. We need not need to stay long in our current stage. From here on out, our defensive maneuvers should broaden, deepen and harbor many other aspects.
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We are undertaking holistic political, security, developmental, administrative, diplomatic, organizational, and governmental movements. We should make this leadership recognize by our members and people. Above all our defense political work should consider our people. Understanding popular movement is an important part of our defending power, we worked significantly on our people to continue defending while persisting any challenge. Consolidating safeguarding people/backend in all aspects means popular political work which centered on minimizing our vulnerability. In line with this, we worked on broad political works in Tigray. These include the political work of awareness creation on the whole community, continuous organization, and let them march.
While broadly mobilizing our development and defense forces, we boosted our enabling power and have begun to take action-oriented movements. Bringing change in this respect is a potential starting point to undertake other sustainable actions.
At this stage, we have managed to create clarity on the special for our struggle is taking and on the realities/affairs of the struggle. There is consensus and clarity among officials, members, and our entire people. Following the fertile grounds of our awareness creation work, we undertook the broad work of organizing the people. We also worked on our organizational structures to base on their mission’s structure and assignment thereby to be strong and undertake a practical activity.
The result suggests that in the previous 5 months, we were able to organize around 2.3 million people in Tigray. This is historical work by any measure. This is a great result that we didn’t accomplish in the previous 2 and 3 years. After organizing the people, we tried to let them march and involve them in practical defensive activities.
The election is one aspect of the phase. We have never had this level of mobilization in previous elections. There were also preparations made in our saving readiness. Regarding good governance, starting from knowing the problem and steps to resolving long-lasted “woreda” level questions based on our people’s participation is considered as one change.
Another important aspect of our political works is related to media. We repeatedly stated that media is our key power of political work and competition whether in Tigray or at the national level. There was a direction to evaluate the existing challenges in the area of media one by one. Based on this, broad and continuous work has been done to evaluate the committee which leads the media at all levels and to solve problems in the media institutions. We also tried to create and implement a better media structure, which will enable us to work better in the future. We officially established a permanent media committee that leads and organizes the media on the daily basis. Since the evaluation and the correction of the previous structure of the media enabled us to lead it firmly, it is playing a significant role in our national struggle. Tigray media could become the voice of the people. Since we can set agenda and go on the offensive, we became superior on ideas/get the upper hand on the enemy and let them assume the middle position. In this regard, primarily it played a role to expose the enemy’s very nature and behavior. The media also greatly played a role in publicizing the Tigray election.
In our national political work, we have set our agenda to expose the nature and behavior of this unitary and dictatorial group. This group’s undemocratic nature and wanting to stay in charge by denying the sovereign power of nations and nationalities. We have exposed its enmity to the entire Ethiopian people, it should be forced to leave its illegitimate hold on to power through popular struggle. We also made the point that the election led by this illegitimate entity should not be held, it is not a legitimate power and should cease to exist after September (2020), the solution to all the existing problems is in the downfall and substitution of this regime by a new all-inclusive political power from each ethnicity, nationalities, and people of Ethiopia.
The result of this became great potential for the strengthening of popular struggle. On the national level, the cooperation we started with organizations and people is hopeful. On the other hand, the considerable movement abroad also in the diaspora is hopeful. Our work on the war front is focused on military and security issues. To this end, we had been trying to create a better structure, and assigning officials who have better performance. The summation of all these brought better readiness on the national struggle by enhancing our competence and potential.
To correctly lead both the political work we undertook in Tigray and the role we had nationwide, we corrected our previous strategies and implementation. We tried to organize and lead the work which had been disorganized previously. After April (2020), we were able to organize a team that can mobilize all our forces, military, security on the war effort, and one which follows savings and contingency, which on the civilian front. A cumulative effect of the above will give our national struggle and diplomacy a better footing.
Though we started it late, there is a good culture of continuously evaluating the establishment, implementation, and progress of the mobilization and re-structuring efforts in the previous four months both by executives and officials in each sector. After conducting our evaluation, we stated the presence of some progress. But this means that the beginning of the work is good and we are not transformed to action to our full potential. Therefore, we could not say that all our efforts have reached a good level of stability and high interdependence. In Tigray, the defense activity in all aspects has not achieved the planned level. It could not go beyond political and security work while involving our other defense activities.
Even in our political work, we could not create comprehensive awareness both on the leadership and people to understand their roles and the existing danger thereby to survive/withstand any shock/danger by making enough readiness both mentally and psychologically.
There is also a problem regarding the content of defense. There is still a problem with leadership at all levels in line with working toward practical results while seriously discharging their responsibilities. By economic readiness, we mean one is a transformation plan and the second is our contingency plan and other readiness to survive the challenges we face. Aggravating this problem, the problems caused by COVID-19 are also not considered as light. For instance, our import and export trade has been affected significantly.
Good governance has not shown considerable change. One key problem is that the service delivery has not improved. Discrimination, bigotry, and corruption still plague our governance. For instance, our justice system is in deep trouble and there is still no improvement. Secondly, the problem of unemployment remains unresolved and unbroken. In general, there has been no fundamental change in this regard. In short, we have had scores of very poor progress regarding good governance. In our other work, we are not leading as strongly as our start, especially in light of the Covid-19 epidemic. The risk of the disease and ongoing illegal activities related to it is not an easy challenge. Our performance was good at the beginning but is now heading in a bad direction. There are still difficulties with performance and effectiveness in our media work. Similarly, there is a problem with sticking to the set plan. In Tigray, our administration is facing the problem of giving due attention to prioritizing activities. We have not been able to mobilize, organize and deploy our people. There is also a problem with the participation of all sections of the media, a problem with attitude, partisanship, quality, and quality in the content.
At the national level, these problems will not be easy. We have not taken the future outcomes of the new national challenges seriously. Of course, there have been recent encouraging developments, but we have not taken the necessary steps to engage our enemy more destructively. We have not properly strengthened the movement of the organizations that have started working with us, at least in the form of a tactical strategy to protect them from harm. In terms of strategy and tactics, we are still scoring low. To prioritize our key activities, both our distribution and our resources should be considered in strict discipline. We did not do our best to come up with a clear plan to dismantle this [enemy] force. This should be taken into account in our next political and military operations, as well as in the context of our military strategy. Moreover, our shortcomings in the process should not be taken lightly, given that we do not have the speed and time to take into account our needs.
1.3.2. The Tigray Election that turned the page to a New Political Chapter
The election we have held is named the 6th Regional Election, but in reality, it was the first and historic for its content and results. It is a right that the people of Tigray have struggled, fought, and sacrificed more than any others, to secure self-governance, self-administration, and self-sustaining to form a government. The people fought for the constitution and established it. However, because of the enemy in power, our rights, dignity, and very existence have been jeopardized or at stake.
The people of Tigray have joined the struggle to defend their homeland for the past two and a half years. The rights earned through this struggle are now in jeopardy by the enemy. The TPLF and the people of Tigray, however, were determined to make the election on time, it is not something we do when we want, or leave when we do not want. When we do this, it comes first and foremost from the beliefs of our organization. The decision-making power of the people is an important tenet of our organization. We cannot go wrong here. Secondly, it is also our constitutional obligation. Third, considering the challenges we faced, elections were our only imperative. We had no choice but to form a legitimate government through the election. Tigray election is unlike all previous elections; it is a choice of self-determination, self-autonomy, and self-defense. Our election is a milestone in the fight against the enemy, where the COVID-19 epidemic and short preparation time had been other challenges. It is also different in that it is an election that we held in the name of Tigray. This is new to us; we have set a clear strategy for such an election, as an organization, we have identified our goals and we have developed a code of conduct that governs and guides our members. As an organization, we have amended the constitution and the electoral law to expand the democratic environment of Tigray. We did our best to give other political parties a chance to compete. Some were 3 months old and others 45 years old. Parties with more than half a million members and those with 13 registered members were offered equal money, equal airtime, and equal competition opportunities. Even after the election results have been announced, we have made a historic decision to allow competing political parties to participate in a Shengo (communal congress) to accommodate different views. In fact, we have done our best, even at a time when Tigray is struggling to expand its democratic environment.
Above all, the people of Tigray have come together and acted with the same voice, the same position as the people. They took action with the same determination. The people of Tigray have made a new history. This nation has made an amazing history by demonstrating who they are. The election we undertook clearly shows that, the extent to which we are able to do
go. We turned a page to a new chapter; ending another one. The people of Tigray have done what they believe to be right. The people of Tigray voted and they won. It was also shown that one cannot separate the people of Tigray and the TPLF. The people’s spiritual determination by showing perseverance and being a model for other nations and peoples and a source of spiritual jealousy. The whole world watched the Tigray election, has seen our perseverance and is fascinated. In the realm of the enemy, they have created countless conspiracies and threats to turn us away from what we believe, but they have not succeeded. They tried but failed. We have done what they told us not to do. From doing, we occasionally made them mention our election. This was the process and outcome of Tigray’s election.
Even though the elections in Tigray helped us achieve this tremendous victory, it will also bring many challenges. The people of Tigray now expect a lot from us. Our party washed its hands and made cast the ballots in the early morning. Now the party needs to wash its hands and get up early in the morning to answer the people’s needs and questions. They are telling us “we want radical changes, we want you to make a difference, no more excuses”. While this is in the interest of our people, our leadership, on the other hand, wants to rest and relax because we have achieved a great feat. As a result, we are not yet able to see the hidden flames of bad governance and unemployment. The people of Tigray have perceived and seen the situation and have absolutely chosen our party. This does not mean that they were complacent and that they did not seek alternatives. It remains to be seen whether we are realizing this in the right way. In any case, we can never go too far in the way we came, the danger may come from within us, discontent and rebellion can spring up from within. So there is no doubt we are now sitting on a hot stove.
The election process was fundamentally successful, but there were some shortcomings that we could learn from. The nature of the democratic struggle has not been properly developed in all of our structures. We have not yet developed a healthy attitude to win the battle of ideas. In this regard, we can’t say there are no flaws – we have also been confused for lack of properly explaining the amended election law and its consequences. There is also the tendency to distort public results and decisions partly; the confusion was not easy because the result did not give us the proper explanation. Partly intentionally, partly without realizing it, the noise created had distorted public results and decisions. The tendencies are also visible.
What is partially happening among some political parties is another issue that needs to be addressed. Attitudes stemming from their basic principles are also getting louder. The opportunities we have created are overwhelming and these parties keep presenting excuses, looking for a girly way out. We should not underestimate the effect that this can have on us. Therefore, we need to take the situation into account, work with them, make them known to the public, and work to strengthen them as much as possible. We must work to make this new journey a success. The election is the key and crucial point of the match and what we say is happening. The enemy is trying hard to undermine our legitimate election. They also try to take various measures. They do their best to deprive us of our freedom and we will do whatever it takes to keep ourselves safe. We will never accept any temptation that comes our way. So we are basically going to make every effort to eliminate this [enemy] power. Therefore, the challenge in this regard should be to closely follow our elections.
1.3.3. Opportunity and risks in defending Tigray
There is no doubt that the struggle and defense we have embarked up on will succeed. There is a capability our struggle has created so far. The people of Tigray have come together as a people and are ready to overcome all kinds of provocations and challenges. There is a spirit of winning mentality and victory amongst us all. Our organization and leadership are being tested to lead in this challenging path. Even if it is not complete, our defense has a balanced approach, adjusting the organization. Success in raising our confidence and following this, we held an election and our party had a complete victory and we have now formed a legitimate government. Thus, a key factor or starting point in our ongoing struggle is in this situation.
The reality of the people’s struggle on a national level is convenient for us. Their willingness to fight alongside us and support us, as well as their motivation, provides opportunities for our future struggle. It’s also an opportunity to better grasp our part in the national crisis and to raise our demand so that our external influence may be heard. Another crucial reality is that we have reached a position when the enemy’s political, economic, and diplomatic distortions and losses can be overcome in a relatively short amount of time. We must broaden our horizons, conquer difficulties, and earn a long-term victory. Without a question, our victory will drastically alter the current quo and move the power balance in our favor. We’ll be a major player in Ethiopia whenever that happens. Justice and fairness can only be achieved through our struggle and the capability of our arms. Everyone will undoubtedly follow us when our powers reach this level. That is why it is critical to plan for and consider our long-term goals.
This stage of our struggle is full of opportunities as well as significant hurdles. The ups and downs of the struggle necessitate tenacity and resourcefulness. The people of Tigray are the most vulnerable to this genuine risk. To bring down the TPLF. This threat is not posed by one party to another. It’s a mix of unitary forces and Isaiah’s team. These Tigray’s combined enemies will do everything in their power to destroy the TPLF. Until we have entirely defeated them, the challenge will be difficult. We must seek to eliminate our adversaries. Defeating the adversary and fighting against it will be a difficult task.
As a result, we are not immune to the opponent’s temptations or the weakness of our internal organizational capability in our fight to eliminate the enemy. One of the issues we confront is the limitations of our defense so far, including the perception of all directions in our defense plan, as well as the work and readiness necessary. There’s also the issue posed by the recent election. Our leadership, following the party line, policies, and tactics, still has a weakness to meet the problems we face and complete our mission successfully. Simultaneously, ruthless, reckless leadership emerging, which will not be difficult in the future. To summarize, we are in a unique moment of our struggle that necessitates all of this capacity – organizational diligence, efficiency, the ability to effectively lead our existing platform, and the ability to grasp and lead a strong strategic unity position. It is important to note that the issue of strategic leadership remains crucial.
Part Two: Strategies, Tactics, and Directions for continuing the struggle
2.1. The dominant origins of our strategies, tactics, and directions
2. The floundering enemy’s final days are drawing near: The 6th round of the Tigray People’s Revolutionary Election, as we mentioned in Part One of this paper, has propelled the Tigray people, the TPLF, and the government to a new level of victory and struggle. The people of Tigray have reclaimed the unitary test and demonstrated to the rest of the world that they would never be vanquished by unitary forces, rising above and claiming key positions for the next phase of the battle. Internal tensions among the enemy are intensifying, and the enemy’s political, economic, and diplomatic margins are widening, especially as they become increasingly alienated from nations and nationalities.
The opponent tripped at that precise moment. It is devoid of a backbone. It’s time for the enemy to demonstrate interventions based on optimistic illusions, as well as blind and unrealistic all-encompassing distractive acts. As a result, the passage of time is becoming a significant factor for appraising the allied forces’ capability. If the measures directed at the enemy’s disintegration are delayed and uncoordinated, the enemy will be given a temporary life. As a result, now is the ideal time and condition to launch a coordinated strategic attack against the stumbling enemy.
In this regard, we have assessed the circumstances, as well as the strategies, tactics, and directions for which we have been fighting thus far, in light of the historical opportunities and victories we have achieved, as well as our strengths and weaknesses. Now is the moment to consider the situation after overthrowing the enemy, as well as our future defense strategies, direction, and tactics. Setting goals, strategies, tactics, and orientations that will take us to victory in order to protect our national interests is becoming a point of agreement and a beginning point.
3. So, where do we go from here? In view of our goals, the question of the people of Tigray and Tigrayan intellectuals has been answered in a way that will conserve our past and ensure
our progress. The people of Tigray have unanimously elected the TPLF. What path will the TPLF take us down in the future? We’ve arrived at a fork in the road, and deciding where to go is on the agenda. What is the destination of our next journey? How can the long-term interests of Tigray’s people be protected? What is the next chapter in our trip that we must break even and achieve lasting victory once and for all, rather than back and forth movement? What is the most effective strategy to go to the next stage of our struggle? What can we learn from our previous and present experiences? These and similar questions are the most important. The people of Tigray must have faith in the new approach, strategy, and course that will be followed. As a result, at this juncture, devising new methods, plans, and instructions is an excellent place to start.
4. Growth / Prosperity 2020 – a year in which the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and challenges that make us work together in many ways grow. The first is that through the experience so far, the Ethiopian nation, nationalities, and peoples have learned and are turning to civil unrest and protest for their rights. The possibility of a fresh chapter is quite exciting. It is a special year that we should strive for as a watershed moment in the country’s political condition and in guaranteeing Tigray’s people’s interests. It is likely to be a year of opening a new door and a new chapter by igniting the all-inclusive and united people-national movement when the adversary is under immense strain from external and internal forces.
The second and most important issue of this year is the year is bring growth/prosperity to our people. The people of Tigray in one voice have said to TPLF, I get up in the morning and wash my hands – I have chosen you to rescue me and serve me without any hesitation.” The people of Tigray expect and trusts our organization more than ever to solve the many and complex problems of our people in a timely and satisfying manner. It is impossible to satisfy this huge demand for change in our people with small things, and trivial activities. Our only option is to ensure that our people are satisfied with important matters and will witness the miraculous change. The people are waiting for us to make a huge change. The pace of change in the last 5 years needs to be seen in the first half of this year (2013). This change cannot be realized without growth and prosperity for our people. The coming growth/prosperity will strengthen our internal capability and it will help eliminate our internal and external vulnerabilities.
Third, the massive mobilization in February 2012 is part of our preparations, and we were keeping a very busy schedule by increasing our vast re-orientation effort, particularly in the run-up to the 6th general election and on security problems. These works were a huge success, much beyond our expectations. Its content was carried out in the fields of defense and the formation of a progressive army. This procedure demonstrated our entire mobilization capability. It denoted our ability to build an army capable of altering our overall progress and wealth. It demonstrates the need of moving rapidly to the next stage of progress and wealth.
According to what we’ve observed so far, the problem is that we’re having trouble unleashing our miraculous powers. We were able to do what used to take us years in only two months, and we completed massive mobilization works. In one day, 51% of voters were registered, and in three days, 91% of voters were registered. There is a significant contrast between what we intended to mobilize our base over the previous four years and what we did in only two months between June and July 2020. The mobilization of electoral forces was a miracle; the same is true for organizing and deploying armed troops. We discovered that we had enormous potential for development and wealth if we unlocked previously unrealized capabilities.
On the other side, we have seen the ability and the basis for huge development; nevertheless, the current mobilization is limited to electoral mobilization, popular organization, and security measures. As a result, we only elevated one foot. We have yet to turn our potential to areas like as good governance, saving, and social development.
As a result, we must understand that we are only walking on one leg and that we must accomplish development and progress that allows us to walk on two feet. As a consequence, our people’s hopes and defense for the desired level of growth/prosperity in 2013 have increased. We may conjure up a fantasy that fulfills our goals for expansion and defense. We put all of our great efforts into anticipating and thinking. This is a year of activism and collaboration. This is where the second guideline comes in.
5. Second Re-Orientation: Continually adjusting to rapidly changing circumstances and remaining flexible based on what has changed, strategizing and directing manpower, popular organization, and financial allocation and deployment to the best of our ability to realize the enemy’s rapid collapse.
To take the people of Tigray on a safe path, and the requirements for that are the fight and hard work required, as well as the strengthening of development democracy organizational structures.
The task of re-orienting our people needs to be rekindled, to transcend all borders, and in this manner, our unleashing our inner potential to establish a safe environment for Tigray is another guideline.
2.2 Transforming Tigray’s defense capacity to an irreversible level
2.2.1 A Strategy to strengthen Tigray Defense
I. Strategy for Strengthening Our Internal Capacity: Following our organizations’ role in rescuing the banned reform, particularly after we expanded the struggle against unitary and dictatorship, we have focused all of our efforts on Tigray, with the primary goal of ensuring the survival and security of the Tigrayan people. We’ve been working hard to improve. As a result, we were able to halt the attacks on us and secure the safety of our people. We will stick to that policy in order to deter future assaults. Thus, under any circumstances, we will work to transform Tigray’s internal defense strategy to the point where it will be able to defend itself irreversibly. While confronting all kinds of internal contradictions within ourselves, to overthrow the group in power, to rule the process after the Abiy’s group under our influence, most importantly, to ensure a lasting solution for the people of Tigray and everything go exactly as we wanted and predicted, the key is to maximize our bargaining power. If there is a strategy that we will never stumble and fall for, it will be a strategy to strengthen our internal capacity.
II. A strategy that identifies and addresses our internal concerns and vulnerabilities: A strategy listed above as a critical strategy, strategy to turn our internal capacity into an irreversible level, it is not just an internal but it is also a confronting strategy that has no alternative. Thus, it is used to coordinate and use all of the moving forces in the process of confronting. The key to our defense is our people. We will mobilize, organize, and direct all our people, rural and urban, youth, women, scholars, investors. We direct various sectors of society, civil society, civic associations, professional associations, economic and social partnerships, and our existing capacity in a way that allows us to use it at its most potential. We work with others who have the same political stance as us.
In All efforts to ensure that our democratic developmental government moves from top to bottom with a division of labour and distribution of work; it leads all capacities as a group (Ganta). It coordinates and leads EFFORT, REST, and TDA as a group. Our organization guides the confronting activity through its strategies, tactics, and directions. We make sure that our region’s democratic developmental government and our organizational work do not overlap and support each other, but rather create a synergistic effect that flows from all directions. To this end, each leadership level and committee in working to achieve the key work plan, work to improve the work plan by considering the situation in context. All four strategies will feed on each other and transform Tigray’s defensive capacity.
2.2.2 Identify and coordinate enforcement tactics and directions
126.96.36.199 Identify and coordinate political tactics and directions
I. Capacitating our organization for the platform mission
A. First and foremost, we need to create a struggle and mobilization within our organization in order for the TPLF to emerge as an organization that will effectively implement this existing forum and its purpose and ensures its transition. In order to ensure the unity of opinion and practice from the top to the bottom, it is necessary to fight with concrete action plans to ensure that the capacity of the internal democratic regulation and the continuous class struggle continues to be an integral part of our organization. Enhancing and expanding the organizational capacity of our organization by deepening and expanding the institutional capacity from top to bottom; Implement and enhance our collective leadership at all levels with strict discipline to mobilize and utilize our capabilities;
B. Awareness of purpose line, perseverance of purpose and fall for purpose; Identify alignment, walk side by side, see and implement everything in the public interest and purpose; Student cadre and a member who develops his knowledge and skills; strengthening the organization’s building by a well-rounded social base with a large population, by creating and refining and energizing a large number of new forces; In the midst of this all-encompassing building fence, the entire current defense is needed to working harder and harder to build self-confidence and moral integrity and competence defensive leadership from top to bottom;
C. Holding on to our organization’s performing platform, its historical mission, and its belief and vision, the issue of membership building needs to be addressed in-depth to fulfill its mission down the road. With its platform mission, we must work to make it to be a thoughtful, competent, functional, grand, and trans generational organization. If our organization, TPLF, fails to transform our people of Tigray into a prosperous society in less than two generations it will be a historic disaster for the people of
Tigray. On the other hand, we must overcome the current challenges. However, we must come out victorious by combining, assigning, and integrating the solutions to the current challenges with the agenda for a sustainable journey. Our journey to construct our system must be charted in this direction. Our current defensive campaign/Mekete/ and permanent journey are crucial for the developmental democratic path of our government. To make this path sustainable, extensive work plans should be put in place so that our members are filled with Tigrean scholars and youth alike.
D. The capacity and capability of our organization should be determined by its bounded wishes/needs. The existing/ actual historical need is to achieve the resurgence of the Tigrayan society in a short period of time and the long run creating the strong Tigrayan people and government that influence the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, led by our powerful and transformational organization. But it is very important to inquire and act on the question of whether our organization is in a position of building a huge capacity to accomplish the current need to execute its missions. The plan to create such a huge capacity should not be left for tomorrow as it lays an important foundation for our today’s self-defense. Whether it is for now or for a sustainable future, building substitutable leadership should be the focus of all our work. Our organization’s internal leadership centers; Central Committee, Executive Committee, and Offices should identify key government institutions and ensure institutional building and produce leadership that leads to the public, savings, security, and local and international institutions, etc. and the rural and urban model that guides our social base in the lower echelons and ultimately to produce a vast developmental democratic force comprised of youth and scholars. It is important to look into the Chinese and Singapore as well as other similar experiences that support this goal to achieve in general the Capacity building strategy especially the preparation of political leadership recruitment and institutions construction documents of our organization widely and qualitatively.
II. To ensure our developmental democratic government achieves its mission
a. In our government’s current developmental and democratic mission, the government, as a key executor and supporter, should work in every way we can to make it the tool for result and transformation. This means that enabling the government to develop transformational reforms and implement and achieve results on regular basis; creating working laws and regulations and leading them by strict discipline and decision making; responding to the people’s questions and problems in a quick, open, and fair manner; and to come out as a competent and committed government.
b. Create a strong government within constitutional order and constitution, from top to bottom, having its own legislature, judiciary, and executive which works in their constitutional mandate without one suppressing or protecting the other, rather that help build one another through balance and control and most importantly ensuring full transparency and accountability around the system and its structure – a broader and decentralized system with full accountability that enhances individual and team work and move them with their all capacities based on their shares build a strong government that mobilizes the defensive forces, builds and deploys on its own initiatives.
c. Immediate implementation of a new contract system of a relatively free and transparent forum that will build our developmental democratic government for good governance, fast transformational economic and social development, security and safety, etc. Using developmental democratic views where one competes and works only with his skills and abilities to achieve results continues, but the ones who haven’t been able to achieve results can be given necessary supports to achieve the result otherwise dropped out without any further delay. It is imperative to quickly create a short-term plan for a new defensive bureaucracy by creating a new political environment that produces diligent/qualified actors and criminalizes anyone that creates small or large obstacles.
d. The structure and institutions of our developmental democratic government can never be seen in isolation from the existing political economy. Even if one tries, this will be futile and will lead to a vicious circle and ultimate fall. Therefore, until the supremacy of developmental democratic political economy is proven in practice, within the given period, strengthening the capacity building of our developmental democratic government through political works, political struggle, and clear political view first and foremost, should be a matter of urgency. The focus of the struggle sees transforming policy and strategy to package by listing, understanding, realizing, and implementation of the existing works and plans as a primary matter of political leadership and struggle. Therefore, there should the discussion, training, and evaluation processes to identify and dismantle the obstacles that will hinder the progress of building capacity. The action led by this process as well as the structure and deployment system that addresses the mission is the core of this building project. At the same time, taking its share of political struggle, the Developmental Democratic Capacity Building bureaucracy without leaving aside competence, skills, knowledge, and technical issues – which combines knowledge, skills in general, should be centered on achieving results that focus on going capacity building activities in all respects with strong coordination.
III. Awakening, Organizing, and Deploying our People
A. Grand Awakening our People
We are at chokeholds with enemies who have set out to destroy us, to eliminate us as a people in such a way that we will never recover unless we defend the people of Tigray against this eminent danger. Therefore, the people of Tigray can assure their survival only by having defended against this enemy and stood on their graves. The determinant factor for defending against these enemies is wide-scale awakening and mobilizing campaigns for all elements of the society. Awakening our people is also a key determinant of the reliability of our defense. Accordingly, we need to work towards building an appropriately sufficient understanding and awareness about the inevitability, the what and the who of the military offensive, the type and content of the war, our way for the defense and victory against this danger, and the key role of our people.
The war will come in different shapes and conditions; therefore, we will defend against the enemy in any shape or form. There cannot be a comprehensive solution for the multi-dimensional falling out with the enemy. Hence, we need to enhance the ability [of the people of Tigray] to survive the trials that will come with war and they have to be prepared to defend with candles and lanterns if electricity is cut.
From whatever direction the enemy comes from, from here or from there, from the top or the bottom, from the right or the left, from the back or the front, our defense is toward self-administration. Whatever happens, the people of Tigray will be the winners. Therefore, we have to do everything in our power to enable our people to stand with morale, courage, sovereignty, strength, and pride. Everyone had to do everything in his capacity, no matter how small, toward this awakening and mobilizing deployment and (special) campaign, without dismissing any effort no matter how small. The youth, women, and educated Tigrayans, who are the nucleus of this defense, have to participate in various planning activities, campaigns, and deployment.
We have to work to completely erase from all the people of Tigray, especially youth, the anti-developmental and anti-democratic backward mindsets that will pose obstacles against the manifestation of its political unity that will transition the people to higher ground. Having done so, the people will be fully ready for the defense mission. Former fighters who have made exceeding contributions to this defense deployment and campaign, with confidence, diligence, and experience have to engage with special work planning and status. Current members and broader public associations are our foundation and the backbones of our defense. We also have to conduct wide-ranging defense works in these. We have to work to engage other political organizations, civic society, chambers, etc. so they can partner with the defense with similar awareness. We have to work on executing these tasks, completing and assuring the political preparedness of our people as if it has no alternatives.
B. Full Mobilization/Organization
Any type of political awareness and preparedness is meaningless unless it is integrated into political structures. It is only the political structure/party that will transition an awakened people into a strong national force and a practical defense capability. Therefore, we have to work for our entire people to be mobilized into political structures where they can make their personal contribution to the defense. We have to deepen and broaden the development teams, 1-to-5 and 1-to-7 networks that have engaged millions of our people, security structures that are incorporated into the people. Previous structures, various civic and professional structures, religious institutions’ structures, etc. We will plan to integrate and engage all these structures in the defense effort.
C. Full Deployment
Just as political consciousness is meaningless without political structures, political structures will achieve nothing without a real/concrete mission and deployment. Therefore, rooting a campaign in a clear mission, continually correcting its flaws, and translating it into results and victory is a key task. Identifying key deployment centers to deploy out entire people. The deployment and campaign of our party leadership are basic structure and cell; the deployment and campaign of our people are development teams, networks as well as security and peace structures. the mission of these structures evolves, grows, and gets stronger according to the conditions of the time; but in summary, these are the defense issues (political, good governance, peace, and security, COVID19, economic / savings, and social development), through which the base is strengthened, from the base toward strengthening the front, etc. Leading wide-scale deployments that are centered in the mission, organizing and executing tasks, conducting endless organizational building in the lower ranks so that we can maximize deployment; incorporating these ranks under complete support and oversight, building an inclusive developmental and defense force, and deployment.
IV. Strengthening Democracy in order to Build the Capacity of Tigray
A. Expanding and strengthening the democracy of Tigray is the foundation of Tigray’s new renaissance journey. The goal/program of our party’s structure is toward developmental democracy, and it believes that the people are the decision-makers in all matters. Upholding this basic principle, we must work to deepen and broaden Tigray’s democratization, as a
ruling and leading party with a clear direction. Now and in the future, there will be multiple political structures, public organizations, and civic associations in Tigray. One can join the structure of choice to join the struggle for democratization of Tigray but deployment will be according to existing capacity. We have to work with a clear direction of making these various capacities the capacity of the people of Tigray. Justice, human rights, and institutions of democracy –we will strive to strengthen institution-building, to enable media to play its own major role in building democracy in Tigray, and to make it an instrument that reflects diverse perspectives and to strengthen the capacity and preparedness of Tigray.
B. The center of our direction is to broaden and deepen Tigray’s political space, to broaden the debate of ideas in Tigray, enabling the people of Tigray to reach a clear consensus about its defense and its renaissance and to reach the limits of defense/development/prosperity rapidly. We are establishing a position and principle of democratization/democracy of Tigray that will govern all of us. The decline of hatred, grudge, and resentment – an efficient and democratic debate of ideas, a culture of diversity and unity, eliminating political market and commoditization, and instead mindsets with principle, ideas debate to win and to lead; deploying in unity while there are differences for the sake of the larger interest, etc. These are the values that we must work to deepen and broaden, to enable Tigray to have a national and democratic culture that is superior to new-liberal democracy, to enable it to have depth and sustainability. The capacity of Tigray that will be created through this will exceed our expectations. This capacity is capacity for our current defense and for our future renaissance.
C. We have to strive to create a new capacity for struggle within our party. To reach this direction, as a ruling party, we have to instruct and educate our members and our supporters. When inflicting harm through administrative means, outside of the realm of thought and debate, comes to be seen as an offense, when beating ideas with ideas becomes a stronger culture from top to bottom, new internal democratization and awareness will emerge within our party, forcing leaders and members to enter the idea battle-field with our detailed strategies and policies in mind and to win. This is our single choice to develop a new capacity within our party.
D. We will strive to engage in a transparent dialogue with various political movements and structures, to identify our common interests, and to work together. Right now there is a major defense in progress. Through economy, savings, good governance, with shared points, Tigray’s democratization and political affairs, etc. Through defense forum, political movements forum, with Baito Tigray (Tigray Tribunal) participation, etc. Having aspired to work together, we strive. Those outside of this who lack a connecting thread; those movements/ participants and any other structures who are rather a foundation of destruction and try to take us back to slavery and backwardness, Prosperity and subservient Bandas (5th row) – we will strive to expose them so they will not find supporters and to isolate them. For this, we will work to consolidate our capacity.
E. Tigray’s democratization will be established on the direct and mobilized participation and struggle of our people. Toward this, we have to work with two and three basic directions. The first is a direction, approach, and system where our people will expand their direct participation and give it depth. Starting from our constitution, we will improve laws so that rights that will guarantee the direct participation of our people will be defined and strengthened. In addition, strengthening our recent elections system, the next election should be one where candidates nominated by parties for the lower structures especially the station / Kebele Council elections should be aligned with the direct participation of the people and the participation and influence of its immediate administrators, as demanded by the parliamentary system. The same will be applied with the granting and confirmation of political appointments.
The second issue is about creating and strengthening associations that are vibrant and stand for the interests of their members. Public associations should be independent and strong, resistant to corruption and influence of party and the government, able to support and oppose according to their interests. To achieve this, while maintaining existing policies, we will build on the initiative to preclude leaders of public associations from holding central committee seats and we will limit the public association management and board decision votes (60-70%) to preclude the respective leadership members. Party members who enter (associations) should be limited to exerting mindset influence and persuasion, without casting votes on decisions. We have to strengthen a new struggle capacity and preparedness whereby our party members (who are in the hundreds of thousands) are members of associations who take on the party’s plan and cascades it through persuasion alone. After 30 years of rhetoric, we have not realized the meaningful change. A party and a government that is not critiqued and criticized by independent and strong public associations cannot sustain its popular character. People should be encouraged to join a political mobilization of their choice, to plan and to work together; through this let us raise the participation of our people; let us create an incredible capacity by deepening and broadening Tigray’s democratization.
V. Transitioning our Media towards a full Agenda Shaping Offensive Entity
There needs to be a consolidated effort so that our wide-reaching media activities (including online) transition can extend towards fully shaping the agenda and launching the offensive so that all internal and external defensive media collaborate at the 4th level (Tigray, Eritrea, diplomacy).
A. For Tigray Media Works, our media should be focused on Tigray. The people of Tigray are confronted with a decisive confrontation, therefore defensive politics, security, peace, savings, and economical processes, literature particularly raising awareness, mobilization, deployment should be conducted. Based on Tigray-specific strategies and directions, detailed plans should be developed and endorsed by the Media Committee and the Standing Committee, and wide-ranging propaganda work and awareness-raising should be executed.
B. For our country: the goal should be to eliminate the enemy that is already approaching its fall. By treating media as if they play a key role in the political platform, agenda should be designed in all extremes and in all languages and enabling the offensive to run supreme. As such, Ethiopian ethnicities and peoples, the federalist camp, civic society, and various movements should be invited to rise up against the enemy. Based on their experience, the source of their problems as well as its solution will be the elimination of this group, and as a result, they should move to topple the enemy; the more time the enemy has, the harm and the destruction that will befall on the people of this country will be infinite; once this group is eliminated there will be solutions and benefits, a call for peace and security, etc. should be extended. On the other hand, there should be a detailed plan and implementation to redeem the reputation of the people of Tigray and TPLF from the defamation by the enemy, to make sure all the population is aware of the mistreatment and humiliation of the people of Tigray.
C. For Eritrea: creating trust and understanding between one population and another, articulating and explaining the perspective and sentiments on our side; making connections to the previous armed struggle to demonstrate that Isaias’s group is meddlesome, anti-peace, and anti-democratic activities have negative implications not only for the people of Tigray but especially for the people of Eritrea, therefore, the people of Eritrea should stand to oppose Isaias’s group, that the people of Tigray will stand with the people and armed forces of Eritrea.
D. For the international community: the position and principle we hold to save our country; creating understanding for the solutions we have proposed, the way that the enemy is following is going to dismantle the country and that this poses a threat to the international community as well, so they should contribute what they can to prevent this danger; in summary, our media should fill the gaps of our online media, should be organized, should follow clear and detailed plans for each chapter, should be evaluated strictly, should be supported by wide internal capability building – all to play an effective role.
2.2.2 Identifying and Implementing Strategies and Directions for Security and Intelligence
1. Security Works for Assurance of Public’s Defense
A. Because our defense is people’s defense, people’s war, it is our base for the war’s success and for concluding it in victory. When we say it is critical, the other key attribute is the extent to which activities for assuring security are fully grounded on the people. Ongoing security works should be strengthened, should be deepened, and broadened according to the current mission and mobilization. Discussions, evaluations, experiences that set the way for broad public preparedness should be strengthened. Individual stations (Kebele) and villages should take charge of their own security and control; to create a reliable peace corridor and on the other hand to establish full support and linkage with our armed forces (front); having sufficient preparations for launching a defense that does not distinguish between base and front.
B. The nature of the war will vary. The enemy will attack us in various ways: underground espionage on its own and in coordination with Isaias’s team, killer squads, terrorism, destroying political and economic centers, etc. Together with organized bandits (traitors), servants of the enemy, and coordinated rebels may conduct underground urban arms trafficking, attacks, and related complicated activities; to prevent these and to counterattack, our popular defense and security should be treated as one body; the overall population should monitor and defend it according to its various structures.
C. Our overall internal security situation is limited to its existing levels according to the enemy’s ill intentions described above. Internal peace and security, chaos, rebellion and disorder, organized theft, burglary and murder, urban gangs, etc. With widespread unemployment and idleness that fuel these, we cannot defend against enemy attacks. Therefore፣ popular defense, internal security, and calm is an important goal that deserves great focus and must come under full control. Peace and security are to be gained through popular mobilization and must engage existing capacities such as youth and security forces as coordinators, should evaluate existing effort and strengthen it.
The pinnacle public resistance is an irreplaceable force to defend and attack against the enemy. In today’s battle scenes, the front and the base (dejene) are inseparable, but in the ensuing missions, the force that carries the sharp edge must be identified and prepared to build its own strategy, direction, as well as equipping it with military science. In this regard, it is becoming more and more important, considering the changing circumstances. It is important to evaluate and identify issues that need to be considered in light of current developments and future challenges/potentials. Hence, the need to develop and manage strategic and operational plans is needed.
188.8.131.52 Urgent Good Governance Reform that serves our people’s interest
1. Quick wins and Quick acting
a) Following our successful historical election, good governance is the first and foremost issue the people of Tigray look forward to being resolved. Efficient service delivery, timely decision, and public consultation and participation are critical issues. In these areas, until the middle of the year, actions that will herald a swift victory and inspire hope in the hearts and minds of the people must be taken. In this regard, the first step is identifying the problems that caused frustration among the people at all levels of administration via public participation. Engaging with our people will enable us to filter what is attainable and what is not, what is urgent and what can be delayed. Most importantly, the platform can provide us insights as to how we can prioritize, be it in urban or rural areas, the most pressing challenges and announce to the public the resilient remedies that can pass the test of time. Merciless actions must be taken against leaders and civil servants that retreat from implementing the suggested actions that are expected to bring swift victory and bright hope.
b) Public requests, either new or pending need to be organized by their type and characteristics along with the maximum time required to process them; once that is established the public needs to be notified. Leadership and civil servant that failed to respond to public requests based on the agreed-upon time period must be held accountable on the basis of established guidelines. Based on the characteristics of the requests, setting a fairly detailed time schedule taking into account hours, days, and weeks required to process them, thereby putting in place tangible enhancement in public service delivery.
c) It is the political leadership that will determine the success or failure of the endeavors. In every cluster, political leaders are expected to ensure that a detailed plan is drawn up in the sectors they coordinate, and following a clear and discursive discussion are expected to delegate respective leaders along with the right accountability mechanisms. Leaders who are creating obstacles in this regard must be held accountable indefinitely. After leaders, it is the civil servant that can be either an obstacle or a change agent in realizing core outlined objectives. The civil servant must be mobilized and awakened via a series of discussions so that it realizes that unless it carries out its duties in a diligent manner to immediately resolve the problem of good governance it may end up being an anti-defense phenomenon. Those who operate as obstacles in the process must be accountable without any compromise. Going against the popular perceived sentiment that leaders will only be held accountable for the decisions they have passed on, so the most rational thing to do is to delay decisions and cause inconvenience to the public. Such status quo must be delegitimized and must be clearly communicated that unless timely decisions are made and requests are processed promptly one cannot continue in the sit of power. II. Relative Time The average time is not calculated by taking into account the lengthy duration. The foundational tasks that will be undertaken in the coming years, starting from the second half of the year, are to move from the institutional and system buildings achieved during the quick wins and fast-tracking them to structural sustainable institutional restructurings that can ensure sustainable and comprehensive good governance. Along with the institutional reforms swift victories will be underway which will build the foundations for Vision 2037. This will be outlined in the successive five years and annual plans.
184.108.40.206. Issues related to defense and the rapid economic and social development beyond the defense
I. Ensuring rapid economic and social development needs to be done in unison and through closely related directions. On the one hand, there are economic and social activities that are directly related to the defense. The defense has built up its own economic base and reserves. There is a huge logistical capacity required for the defense. At the same time, the obstacles and complexities put up by the enemy remain, unless the enemy is dealt with. Therefore, it is imperative that the steps we have taken in this regard need be revised and re-visited to guarantee the required outcome. To attack us – the enemy will need to evaluate and correct the context of the attack and its initiatives, as well as their status. All the logistics, resource mobilization, and other financial constraints needed to wage war should be explored, including options deployed for solving similar problems during the Ethio-Eritrean war.
II. As part of the defense, the core for economic growth is to create a context in which meaningful youth entrepreneurship can be explored through rapid governance. Basically, the sustainable employment opportunities of the youth will be linked to the overall transition plans, namely the agricultural and industrial transition, but it will also need to be developed as an independent package and further analyzed. As part of the defense, we also need to focus on large-scale irrigation and water conservation, as well as mobilization, in anticipation of this year’s drought with the locust swarm this year, including economic and transformation in agriculture and livestock. This will further need to include economic and transformation in agriculture and livestock. Labour, land, market and productivity, rural finance and industrialization, etc. need to be considered in light of Vision 2037, as we identify the transition that will begin in the next 5 years, especially in the first 2 years. In general, focus on urban industry, especially small and medium manufacturing, financial systems, banking, and insurance needs to be considered. There is a need to draft a joint plan for a bigger investment umbrella EFFORT and ‘Social Assistance Tigray’(ማርት) as an industry in line with our Defensive transformation./ In urban development planning, infrastructure, and housing construction, especially in urban areas, and the development package from rural to urban areas and the like need to be considered. Leanings from Finland, South Korea, and other countries need to be made for health packages, especially during Covid 19, as a critical transformation regarding health (including childbirth, personal and environmental hygiene, health insurance, etc.). In general, the selected areas of transition and development should be identified and approved by the Central Committee to create a conducive environment for development.
2.2.3. A Tigray which has built a comprehensive institutional capacity (De-facto Tigray)
I. In the last two or three years, Abiy’s group has been working to take our right to self-determination, self-government, and the independence of regional states. Thus, has focused on destabilizing the country. We will not give up our right to a constitutional state and autonomous region in the face of this pressure. We are a semi-autonomous region, the only constitutional state, to hold this election and establish our legitimate people’s de-facto government. Accordingly, we as a region have been able to carry out our governance responsibilities independently and have progressed the vision of Tigray by strengthening a de-facto state.
Accordingly, we need to work on a comprehensive study and detailed work plan in order to develop Tigray’s basic institutional capacity. Our top-down structure must arise from this and serve: concerns such as security and economy, tax collection, third-party relations, commerce and investment, media, and diverse infrastructure must all be considered when creating the new Tigray constitution. There are two ways to make this modification. It can either be linked to the next safe and sustainable succession path or fixed under the current more autonomous federation. Regardless, we must work hard to develop a de facto state institutional capability within the boundaries of an anti-integrationist framework.
2.3. Destroying the enemy and initiating the country’s new reform for the benefit of Tigray
2.3.5. Campaign to defeat the enemy
220.127.116.11. Development plans and goals to defeat the enemy
I. In considering the current situation within the country, about 5 or 6 months ago, we identified three plans for the new special chapter of our struggle and as a means of dealing with emerging incidents/developments. These include eliminating the unitary and dictatorial group, creating/forming a caretaker government structure, and mitigating the risk of disintegration. At the same time, we have taken every step and possible opportunity to define the country’s future direction and save Ethiopia from the enemy through the establishment of a transitional government, driven by the expectation of expanding the possibilities for the continuation of the constitutional system. Now, as our review suggests, we have made major strides in moving forward
through various recent developments. We are at a historic juncture where we need to rethink our current plans and goals, which must be formulated to find a solution that will save the people of Tigray and ensure their interests.
II. These plans (conspiracies) are still in need of a modest adjustment but are still not intact. But there are significant changes in ability. The political, economic, security, and diplomatic foundations are being depleted to bring about the fall of the Abiy group. The current Abiy administration cannot be stopped except by a certain line of force to exploit the national leadership gap. What kind of transitional government will there be after the fall of this group? The question of how people can be saved without falling into a state of conflict and destruction will be related to this question. The second plan/scenario is to deal with the weaknesses and problems of the party and, to a lesser extent, the need for change in the economic field and the harnessing political instability and revolt of the people. To this end, if the prisoners are released and the election agenda is advantageous to the government, this will require us to act as a dual force in a relatively short-lived scenario between us and the enemy. The third scenario is the fact that the national movement is without a leader, weakened by national conflict and attacks, but driven by local activists, which the Abiy group losses control of the country in the midst of disintegration and escalating conflicts.
III. In the face of these potential scenarios, it should be seen which event/scenario is the most important, which is the most pertinent, and which is our main goal, needs to be determined. This is not mean that the second scenario/event is closed. On the other hand, it is not possible to formulate a long scenario, but a relatively short one is superior to the other. In any case, a scenario/event can be beneficial to the people and the enemy and so we must fight against this tendency. In the meantime, if we are confronted, we can veer towards negotiating. Every war and the danger of disintegration always leads to the brink of extinction, we must fight against alleviating this danger. We will not benefit from the disintegration of a country that is not governed. Therefore, it is important to make sure that the first scenario complements the second one and ensures that it is realized.
IV. In a scenario where the Abiy group falls with in a relatively short period of time (by 2013) the current state of political isolation will be intensified; protests and riots, especially the current Oromo people and others, will continue to accelerate the process of rejecting the group as a government after Meskerem 25 through political rallies; even if there is no strong national leadership to emerge and organize the nations and nationalities and peoples as well as civic organization, a strong Tigray people and TPLF will need to mobilize to deal with a gap through a nationally organized structure. In addition, this scenario will entail that the economic and security crisis intensifies, the influence/pressure of the international community continues, and the enemy’s internal conflicts and infighting deepens; and as a result, the enemy will fall. In addressing the leadership gap a structure is being prepared to quickly take over and end the enemy’s reign. This will need to be done swiftly as any delay is not good for us, but it is good for the enemy. Therefore, we will fight the battle not between the enemy and the people of Tigray, but as a national struggle fought through Tigray’s anti-violence struggle. This goal would also apply to Isaias’s group as circumstances permit.
18.104.22.168. Strategies for achieving our goals
Strategy One: Integrated political aggression as a key strategy
One of the key strategies to defeat the enemy is a policy that completely isolates the enemy from the people and all the sacrifices required by the people by destroying its backbone through intensifying public coordinated political attacks giving no alternative but to defeat the enemy; transition to active/immediate opposition and violence; mobilizing and enhance friendly support; not permitting the National Defense Force to be a tool of the government and not allow it to go against the constitution and the people; creating an organizational structure which brings about victory through mitigated or no destruction born through engaging political attacks that erode the enemy and bring about a new chapter, and implementing strategies for a comprehensive political offensive that would maintain through
human and resource mobilization to force the government out of power and into negotiations.
Strategy Two: Armed violence and struggle
If the enemy is not forced to surrender and come to negotiations through current measures, he will be forced to deploy non-existent security forces and issue official orders to the Special Forces and the Army, arresting, killing, and forcibly suppressing protests at every corner of the country, and killing the people who came out to protest with unimaginable cruelty (worse than the Derg Regime). As a result, the door for a peaceful legal struggle is closing. The struggle need not be based on facing the enemy head-on in combat. The turning point for civil unrest and violence is the enemy’s political and economic centers, which provide flawless and well-coordinated armed support – which warrant closing of channels and depleting the morale – to ensure the enemy is defeated through deployment and management of public and private organizations structures is ensured.
Strategy Three: Negotiation as an enemy dismissal strategy
Opposition groups seek to establish political and peaceful supremacy in the face of similar weaknesses or, in the long run, to maintain political and peaceful supremacy, or to come up with negotiating agendas based on various external interests. Thus, negotiation still continues to be an important part of the struggle. For our part, we must use this tactic as a useful tool to subdue the enemy. We have already officially started this with the call for peace and national salvation. This is because negotiations have to have their own science, wisdom, and advocacy. Thus, a committee should be set up to coordinate this from time to time and formulate strategies. On a strategic Level ensuring the people of Tigray, who are facilitating the defeat of the enemy, are far from a negotiation; ensuring decisions that affect our long-term security and interests and self-governance are not made; and making a commitment to a flexible negotiation strategy within the framework of fundamental issues that does not infringe on the rights of nations, nationalities, and peoples.
Strategy Four: initiation including a strategy to break the enemy military balance
The war we are facing now has many features and forms. The war has intensified since the beginning of the conflict. War of attrition through soft instruments is making military invasion inevitable in all its forms. There are many things that can be done to end a military war. We have a war that involves military action. Basically, we have a mission to defend against this war actively and effectively. However, not all journeys lead to this. In the name of defending the enemy until he gathers his strength and comes to destroy us, we must not create an opportunity for us to perish or to weaken. The mission is not limited to deterrence, but one which will see the demise of the enemy.
Therefore, it is imperative to take military and strategic offensives, which include a clear motivation to destroy the enemy as an important strategy. We must lead and coordinate this strategy of attack by disrupting the enemy’s military balance, and we must engage in military and national aggression without compromising our own defenses. This is not done for others, but primarily for us. If the enemy gains strength and momentum its first, second, and third goal are to destroy the people of Tigray. Now the enemy’s political and economic landscape is in shambles and so Its military standing must be compromised. This needs to be transformed into a strategic attack. In fact, in a timely manner.
To have the view of waiting while the enemy strikes and defending its attacks will weaken us and make us more vulnerable to engage the enemy by its own tactics, preferred time, and organization. This should be a strategy we should be weary of and avoid. Even in military science, war is a scientific act based on pre-war action, which is based on pre-emptive warfare in the event of a serious and unpredictable/unprecedented situation/threat. When will this strategy be implemented? How and by whom? What will happen? This will be answered by a strategic war plan focused on shaking the foundation, destabilizing, and destroying the enemy.
22.214.171.124. Strategies, directions, and implementation measures to destroy the enemy
I. The preparation of Tigray: First and foremost, the people of Tigray must be prepared for this war, as part of Tigray’s capacity-building efforts. First, we must complete the political readiness. This political impulse and decision-making will lead to many obstacles. To change the outlook of the people to look at the war as a means of survival; building resilience within every member of the population (young and old) for the challenges to come; also build capacity in terms of the military by making sure to do our best in ensuring that we are fully prepared, based on our manpower, organization, and skills. In addition, the core and the front line should be closely monitored as a unified force through large-scale propaganda campaigns. This also needs to be seen in the light of strengthening the organization, manpower, and resource mobilization.
II. National initiative and readiness: In the end, the whole war and the attacks on the enemy must have a national dimension. Therefore, it is necessary to consolidate all the national capacities from across all frontiers. One of the key issues in national readiness is to mobilize nations, nationalities, and peoples through extensive propaganda and mobilization; There is no right to self-determination and self-government in the face of this power, based entirely on experienced learning; there is no peace and security; the economy as a whole is dying; people are rising up against one another; sovereignty is challenged through treason; now with the only choice being of wiping out this group through all means such as integration all local resources, mobilizing of standard media, online media, print media, and if possible, in-person forums, etc. Here the Oromo people need to emerge as the core of the movement.
III. Urgently alleviating the national leadership void:-Despite being crippled the enemy was able to get an opportunity because the national leadership void (grandiose hegemony) was not resolved. It’s challenging to address this problem fundamentally in a short period of time. If efforts are to be made in the short term [some of the measures that can be taken include] conducting frequent political meetings organized
under certain themes and agendas (“there is no government, no one can undertake elections, let’s get rid of forces unwilling to come to the dialogue table”) that help lead and coordinate the current national movement; urging the formation of an alliance of intra-ethnic parties; striving both locally and overseas to create movements of the youth, leaders, activists, intellectuals, and different civic organizations (traditional structures) individually or in groups; learning from/adapting the organization and experience of the forces which led the recent uprising in Sudan with a view to establishing immediately a joint national committee and command post at a grassroots level; using this platform to make the transition to a regular coalition of political alignments/forces; renewing the federalist forces alliance, which presently is allied with us, along these objectives.
IV. Inflaming organized nationwide uprisings:-Armed uprisings and dialogue are vital tools in ousting /destroying the enemy. As is clearly evident peaceful and lawful [political] struggle has been rendered meaningless through forcible suppression. Therefore, the struggle needs to be accompanied by force and anchored in organized uprisings and riots. It’s important to work on preparations that are mindful of the fact that organized uprisings can escalate into a military war, inflame the existing revolts as well as the establishment of both an overt and covert structure that is responsible for this and its goals. The necessary manpower, resource, and various structures are required [in this regard]. This should be complimented by the creation of a wide swath of buffer zone in neighboring countries and a pursuit/movement that goes far beyond this and has its own detailed plans.
V. Expanding and strengthening the buffer zone:-In order to strengthen efforts to repel [the enemy] on all fronts it is imperative to bring on board all nations, nationalities, and organized federalist forces and to enhance the capacity to beat back [the enemy] together with the neighboring areas of Afar, Agew, Qimant, and Amhara by devoting particular attention to and adopting specific plans for the matter. This endeavor will be strengthened in all respects upon an assessment of the length it has gone and the organization and deployment of the manpower available now so that it marches on forward. We must act urgently to create a strong buffer zone by engaging in a common struggle underpinned by all-around mutual support by forging a robust alliance of people-to-people, elders, tribal leaders, intellectuals, the youth, women organizations, and other organizations.
VI. Ensuring the national election agenda deny a breathing space to the enemy:-Although the enemy rejoiced when the COVID-19 pandemic came as a windfall at a time it was at its wits’ end for lack of a pretext to hide its anti-democratic attitude, which emanates from its innate behavior, to dispense with elections, it was forced into holding the [national] elections due to the intense domestic and international pressure the Tigray elections brought about and the fact that it has started to go downhill. This is a heavy defeat and humiliating for the enemy. However, it has embarked on milking the elections to find a little bit of breathing space and prolong its existence even for a while. All in all, it is bent on rendering the contest [for the elections] anti-democratic, incarcerating those who must be imprisoned, paying off and intimidating those who can be bought off and negotiating with the rest with a view to rig the elections entirely and assume the power it needs to extend its tenure.
VII. [Moreover, we must] not only deny the enemy any breathing space in regards to the elections through a fabricated agenda, but also make it a key theme that helps topple or remove the enemy and thus the center of our political activity in conjunction with the narrative that the enemy does not have legitimate power and should step down. Accordingly, the election agenda ought to be used to eliminate/oust the enemy [by making the argument that] this criminal enterprise is guilty of treason; it’s committing a fascistic butchery that has soaked it in the blood of innocent citizens from Oromo, Southern People, Somali, Qimant, etc.; it’s a traitor which has formed a front with the Isaias group and other countries to sell out the country; it’s an utterly anti-democratic and traitorous group which, along with its institutions, is incapable of holding/executing the elections and must be brought before justice for treason and the slaughtering of citizens; Abiy’s cabinet, the House of Peoples’ Representatives, the House of the Federation, and the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia all lack constitutional legitimacy; the institutions that administer the elections must therefore be organized anew; and demand all political prisoners be released and Abiy’s criminal enterprise be prosecuted as preconditions for broad negotiations.
2.3.6 Establishment of an interim government and laying the foundation for a sustainable journey
I. Preamble:-Even as we figure out skillfully and with the utmost care where we are going and how following the ousting or downfall of the enemy (the Abiy group) we must mobilize the peoples and [political] forces of Ethiopia and forge a universal consensus within the people of Tigray in general and the TPLF in particular with a view to chart a clear direction and begin a journey aboard a train that ensures the foundation of a durable future. It’s of the essence to ask what kind of missions or goals should the government there should be in the wake of the fall of the enemy, act with a renewed commitment to its realization, adopt partisan positions on the eve of the demise of the enemy, and launch a wide-ranging campaign towards that end.
II. What kind of transition theory/management?
The crisis and deep mistrust prevailing in Ethiopia on the one hand and on the other the absence or fragmentation of organized political alignments/fronts or alliances/ on the national level as well as the efforts and meddling foreigners with vested interest are engaged in to hijack the process for their benefit, coupled with the fact that such debacle gives rise to an opportunity for give-and-take both on a massive and individual scale and political gamesmanship has become the norm, informs us of the need to handle the kind of transition theory/management or the formation of an interim government with extreme caution and skill. The key consideration behind the creation of the interim government goes beyond its establishment and takes us a step or two forward in answering how we can continue [to exist] as a nation.
Accordingly, an interim government shall be established. A national Congress comprised of members represented equally from each nation and nationality, which constitute a majority, all political groups/alignments operating in Ethiopia, mass organizations having a meaningful membership base and civic organizations shall be formed; similarly, in regions that do not hold elections, a regional Congress shall be founded. The number of members of congress will be determined by the entities slated to become members. The Congress shall be a permanent body that has the same objectives/goals as a representative congress. The Congress shall appoint a Prime Minister, who is unaffiliated with a party, upon nomination from among Working Groups or any other option through a consensus or failing that a majority vote. The Prime Minister will then propose non-party-affiliated Cabinet members for confirmation by Congress. A caretaker government will [thus] be formed. It shall administer the country on the basis of the objectives/plans/goals set out for it. The same shall be true for regions. The country will return to a new era of stability and constitutional order. Our strategic struggle will emerge victoriously. A new journey will start.
III. The objectives/plans/ goals of the Congress and caretaker government:-Upon appointment by the Congress the caretaker government will commence the day-to-day administration of the country. It will not have the power to enact new laws; it will administer the country in accordance with the existing laws and constitution; it will not adopt a new economic or social policy; it cannot establish or dissolve any [state] institution (without prejudice to exceptions); it shall have such goals/objectives as protecting the peace and security of citizens. As regards Congress it shall have three fundamental goals/functions. It shall have different working groups and work on building fundamental capacities. Its activities/goals, which are subject to a periodic detailed review, shall first be to establish a caretaker government and oversee its performance and budget. The second key and major task of Congress is to tackle the question, “How can the continuity of this country be ensured? How can we solve its deep-seated problems? What can its nations and nationalities do going forward given we have been [mired] in [internecine] wars and contradictions for some 132 years now?” It will organize and coordinate broad and extensive dialogues involving the Congress itself and all nations, nationalities, and peoples on all options aimed at fundamentally reforming the country. It shall establish a constitutional commission tasked with recreating the country based on matters on which consensus has been reached; ultimately a constituent assembly shall be formed and a constitution that will fundamentally solve the country’s systemic problems in relation to managing diversity will be adopted. Expected to proceed alongside the process of adopting this constitution, which institutes a loose arrangement whereby regions are bestowed with full sovereign powers akin to that of a nation-state and the federal government is given residual powers to manage certain matters on which an agreement has been reached, each regional state will determine its own organization in a referendum. The third duty of Congress is to prosecute the [above] tasks efficiently and finally conclude by organizing national and regional elections where they have not been held. These responsibilities are difficult to discharge in the absence of a strong national party/dominant party. The forces of chauvinism and provincialism, particularly chauvinism, will fight to the death to derail this journey; external challenges are also bound to surface/come around. Nevertheless, the right to self-determination, self-administration, and justice/equity shall prevail. There is no other option. The [entire] process may last a minimum of 2 years and a maximum of 3.
2.3.7. We have also need to be aware of who is fighting us from the back
In general, the case of Eritrea, especially Isaias’s team, is related to our defense and our needs. The political, security, economic and diplomatic, etc… efforts of the (Isaias’s )team profoundly and directly affects us. What makes it very grave is the coalition of Isaias’s and Abiy’s teams has profound resentment and desire to destroy the people of Tigrai and TPLF. This is not because of coincidence. Both are standing against and fighting us because they have planned and decided together in order to continue in power and boost their supporters this organization and the people(of Tigrai) have to be destroyed. This does not come from the unitary and outright anti-democratic team only but from Isaias’s team too. The latter sometimes by itself and in other times with the connivance of other enemies of ours has dreamed and pronounced the destruction of us if it is not for lack of capacity. Therefore, the two forces are two faces of the same coin and are a threat to our existence. Allowing Isaias’s team to continue while Abiy’s team is undone, hollows our victory and puts us in a vicious circle. Then, to make Isaias’s fate go along with that of Abiy’s team, we have to have a grand tangible plan to weaken and quickly destroy Isaias’s team.
II. In order to more or less weaken and destroy Isaias’s team, just like our country there are tangible factual opportunities. This team has almost been divorced from the people of Eritrea. In fact, the people do not wish it well. In other words, they have lost hope in it. There is also a huge schism in this team. Within the army, officers that are posted below a battalion and soldiers in the infantry, as well as, the entire population, have an anti-system attitude. For those that are situated above a brigade command, he (Isaias ) tries to buy their loyalty through benefits, using their scarcity/flaws and spying. The Eritrean people are fed up with serving in the military and even the Ahadus are functioning with only 1/3 of their capacity.
Isaias is trying to address these deficiencies by organizing the permanent/previous army. It is attempting to make its presence felt by enlisting civil servants below the age of 65 in the permanent/previous army. The lifeline of Isaias ‘s team is the organization and set-up of the top brass of the military, national security, and intelligence. As mentioned before, by putting the 65 years old and less as members of the permanent/previous army and by dispersing them in the lower or ganta ranks of the army, it prevents political activity in the name of the army. Besides, the top generals and national security bodies are corrupt and are ethnically suspicious of each other, and are in a trap-like system where they look up to Isaias as a savior. Primarily by using the aggravated leadership gap in our country as an opportunity, Isaias is working day and night to keep the people of Eritrea under the yoke of slavery to destroy us.
III Using this concise and directional fact and circumstance, there is a wide opportunity to break up Isaias’s team. Therefore, we will follow two closely intertwined work plan directions. One is based on the internal capacity of Eritrea, i.e., to supply tangible organized support so that Isaias can be vanquished. Secondly, if Isaias’s team is going to be part of this open invasion, to come up with a military strategy and preparation to defend ourselves. Based on the Eritrean internal capacity/situation the tangible support we need to provide are: at one side to magnify the enemies’ weaknesses and on the other side to get rid of the big gap in leadership problems and dispose of the quagmire that prevents the agents of change not to organize, not to defend themselves.
In any case, to organize and break up Isaias ’s team we need to come up with: a strategy and capacity and the right people to lead and organize it; allocating sufficient people who know the environment/area and the work that has to be done; and maneuver to acquire whatever finances and material we can manage by organizing the people, organizations, army, media, and activists plus internal and external (yibqa/yeakil/popular movement), etc…
We will be free from the front and the back too. To ensure our future we need to adjust our circumstances. We can. There is nothing that is impossible for our victorious and diligent TPLF.
2.3.8. To Strengthen Relationship with Tigrians Living Outside of Tigray and with Third Parties
I. Tigrians living outside of Tigray should consider the struggle to overthrow the enemy as maintaining their wellbeing and proper leadership should be given on this aspect. The struggle should be pursued in light of the danger and opportunities it brings to them. The biggest threat is that the enemy’s widespread violation of Tigrians that live outside of Tigray. Therefore, we should formulate strategies that would not bring danger to them and that would increase their zeal for the struggle. The objective and organization of the struggle should be conducted in public and at the same time in clandestine. The struggle should make a way for our people to participate at large. Concerning Tigrians in the Diaspora, the struggle and the work plan should continue as it is.
II. Concerning the relationship with third parties, the work that was started by governmental offices should continue to be strengthened by accommodating those that have great knowledge and experience. Among them, if some do not have a clear understanding of the struggle, then we should elaborate on the purpose of the struggle, and for those who oppose us, then we must work hard to make them come to our terms. We should evaluate our past relationship and we must formulate new detailed strategies.
III. On the international level, our first priority should be on establishing good relationships with our neighboring countries. Concerning Eritrea, our goal should be defending ourselves and finding lasting solutions; Concerning Sudan and Djibouti (most of Tajura), we should have a special organization that accommodates good collaboration on the aspect of the economy, security, and politics. Concerning Middle East countries and Western countries that stand behind them, by having deep knowledge about their allegiances, we should work to collaborate with them and we should work together with them. With the superpower countries, we should work in accordance with their unique characters. With China, we should work accordingly and to the limit that it stretches. With America, we should have plan A and plan B (There is a great chance for Joe Biden to be elected as president). Concerning European Union, England, and Russia, we should show them that our objective is not harmful to their interest and we should start a dialogue with them to bring to a halt the group that dismantled the country.
2.4 Building New Chapter that Establishes Lasting Solution for Tigrean People
2.4.1 Establishment of Ethiopian and Tigrian People’s Empire
I.After defeating the enemy, a new provisional government with constitutional governance shall be restored, and not only that we must struggle to lay down corner stone for deep dialogue on the future of the country (including referendum). We should not limit our objective on the establishment of provisional government only, but we should look beyond the current situation and fulfill our long-term objectives by adding fuel to the problem and devise solutions for the fire.
Right now we should not allow ourselves to enter into the same dangerous situation. We should learn from the experience and make sure that this kind of situation should not be repeated in the future. If that is not the case, then this will be a problem for our welfare and identity. Like one politician said if one disaster occurs then that is a tragedy, but if it occurs twice then it is a joke. If Tigrean people enter into second and third disasters, by not leading the people properly, then this will be a historical failure. For this reason, we should look back on the history of the Ethiopian and Tigrean People’ empires.
II.During 19th Century (1889 A.D), Emperor Minilik, who started his quest from Northern Shoa annexed the Southern, Western, and Eastern part of Ethiopia, in which at that time they were administered by autonomous or semi-autonomous governments and administrations. This opened the door for Emperor Minilik to accumulate huge economic recourses and manpower which helped him to conquer all Northern feudal lords, especially the Tigrians who tried to resist but in the end, they gave up and submitted to Minilik. After this time, Ethiopian Empire was established which covered lands from North to the South and from East to the West.
III. Later on, Emperor Minilik’s military power was substituted by economic power. The militants, by looting the land, became owners of the land. Since these militants could not farm all these lands by themselves, the people became peasants on the land in which they have taxed one-third of their products. With this, unimaginable oppression, slavery and atrocity were committed against the people. Even though there was not a militant governing system in the Northern part of the country, ruling feudal lords in Tigray and Amhara by getting a blessing from Emperor Minilik, they oppressed the peasants grossly and almost slavery kind of system was established at that time.
IV. The Empire that was formed by force started modern bureaucratic administration and was strengthened by the intervention of foreign Italian invasion. It was established on undemocratic foundations. Until 1991 (for 102 years), this undemocratic empire continued to oppress and violate the human rights of the people (75% of the people) and Ethiopia was like hell during this time.
V. After 1991, with much effort from the Tigrian people, this unitary government system was abolished and in its place multinational constitutional order was established. With that, 27 years of rapid economic growth, peace, and democracy were attained. In 2018, the unitary dictatorship came back again, and right now the country is at the brink of division. Ethiopia in its 132 years history, except for the EPRDF period, no multinational nation-building process took place and it was immersed by continued political, military, and psychological conflict and war. The establishment and continuation of the country can be characterized by war and conflict.
VI. The people of Tigray are among ancient historical people and in their long history, the people faced failure, resurrection, hunger, prosperity. They faced many invasions and defend these invasions and from these, the people contributed a lot to the wonderful history of the country but they have not fulfilled their interests yet. They passed through so many sufferings; they were oppressed by their own feudal lords and after the formation of the Ethiopian Empire they were oppressed by Shoa-related Lords. Armed criminals rob their lands, recourses, and energies and this brought backwardness and illiteracy to the region. Their national identity was degraded and they were considered secondary citizens and they were in deep slavery condition.
VII. For 17 years the people struggle with other sister nationalities and overthrow the 100-year-old unitary empire and established multinational constitutional federalism; but on the way of building this federalism, the unitary empire resurrected from the grave and took power after 27 years. Because of this Ethiopian empire, the existential survival of the people is in great danger.
VIII. This is the most dangerous time in their history. These are the following reasons: The people of Tigray were the ones that destroyed this unitary power in previous times and they are afraid that if they could not be destroyed at all, they would come back power; When this unitary authority came to power, all other nationalities were confused but the Tigrian people maintained their self-rule and sovereignty; Their undemocratic assumption about the notion that the Tigrians would rise from their grave and destroy them; So by collaborating with Isaias gang and others, they worked hard to wipe out the people. So after years of golden victory, this is the time of danger for the Tigrean people.
2.4.2 What can we learn from the world and specific countries?
The issue of addressing the problems we have doubtlessly should be founded on internal realities and on scientific analysis based on these realities. In spite of this, learning, tailoring, and implementing these from the achievements and shortcomings of the rest of the world, by focusing on relevant facts and their conclusions as well as suggested solutions and their outcomes and by testing these through the facts we are facing, is of paramount importance. The history of state-building in Ethiopia has no relationship with state-building in the rest of Africa. The Ethiopian state building is similar to the European territorial government building. The history of the founding of the Ethiopian state is intertwined with the big empire trend of Ottoman Turkey, Austria, Hungary, Britain, Russia, Germany, etc…be it expansion like the 600 years of Ottoman expansion or the consolidation of dispersed lands by war or those that came together peacefully towards the end to form nation-states. The nation-building of the British Empire happened through the economic and social transition to an industrial society and by devolution of power. While for almost all the rest, especially starting from 1848, nationalist movements that were based on language identity were born and later established several national governments. The 1848 balkanization of empires into national governments and our 1960s (EC) anti-national exploitation movement had similarities. However, there was neither a multi-nation building nor a nation/ethnic state building in our case. In general, the experience of the world relating to the centralization of territory teaches us the futility of tightly controlling diversity through a centralized anti-democratic administration. Leaving this aside, reference to two countries with such an experience is useful. To learn from the experience of others, we will refer to Yugoslavia as an example of countries that did not accommodate diversity and ended up breaking up after violent wars but we will also refer to the peaceful separation of Czechoslovakia. Reference will also be made to the suitable accommodation accorded to diversity by the more than 150 years old multi-ethnic federalism of Switzerland. The case of Canada-Quebec will also be mentioned.
Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia are eastern European countries populated by Slavs which suffered under the yoke of exploitation and authoritarianism of the Ottoman and Austro-Hungary monarchial empires. With the end of WWI Yugoslavia was established in 1918 with six regions of southern Slavs while Czechoslovakia was founded by western Slavs (Czechs and Slovaks) in 1919. The former was undone through bloodshed while the latter came to its end peacefully after 72 years.
Yugoslavia was established by southern Slavs, i.e., Serbians, Croats, Slovakia(sic) and Bosnia, Mentegrol(sic), and Macedonia. (Later on two administrative divisions namely Voyvodina and Kosovo were added.) The two countries were born from the opposition to the previous monarchial empires. Especially Yugoslavia, even though it is a country of one group, it could not stand on its own because of its division and subjection to authoritarianism and exploitation. Thus, an anti-Austria, Hungary, and Ottoman Turkey movement at the end of the 19th century was fomenting. Though the Serbian king did not approve of the union since the majority agreed with the union it was founded. Even if Yugoslavia was established by 6 ethnic groups in terms of population and political clout Serbia had 40%, Croatia had 20%, Sovenia had 6 % while the rest comprised Muslim Slovanian(sic), Christian Mentograwian(sic), and Macedonians. This lasted for 75 years.
The concord of opposing the exploitation through territorial consolidation that was the foundation link was weakened by the distinct internal demands and needs from the three ethnicities and this was evident from the beginning. On the occasion of the founding of Yugoslavia, King Alexander’s speech refers to the unification of Yugoslavia through the three (Serbs, Croats, and Slovenians) as one nation with 3 ethnic ethnicities was criticized by Croatian politicians and academicians. Ever since that time the Croats were feeling betrayed. Right from the establishment of the nation, Serbs and Croats were at loggerhead which developed into vengeance. These ethnic groups have their own language, identity, culture, and history. In terms of religion, they are Christian (Orthodox and Catholic) and Muslim. They did not have a shared history except the territorial exploitation and suffering they endured as one group, i.e., Slavs.
Beyond all other issues, their differences were that of their wishes and desires. The way the Serbs envisioned their destiny is to revive the glory of, Ottoman Turkey which usurped, strong state and kingdom of the mid 15th century, and build a Yugoslavia led by them while painting the rest, particularly the Croats and Bosnians as anti-unity. The other ethnicities, chiefly the Croats and Slovenian were fundamentally seeking recognition of their identity while at the same time pursuing a confederation beyond the federation. This and other similar differences further fueled conflicts, vengeance, murder, and abduction (from 1982-1934 in ten years (sic) increased. Croats meanwhile had the agenda of dissociating from Yugoslavia and creating their own country. Through a home-based fascist party supported by Hitler, they committed massacres on the Serbs and the others, thus carried out reprisal on the Serbs. The further continuation of such acts, mainly between Serbs and Croats became an incessant conflict and destruction that reached the point of breakup.
While they were in such a situation, WWII ended, and the Croatian born Marshal Joseph Tito who fought the anti-fascist (sic) in 1945 replicating the model of the Soviet Union and in the name of preserving brotherhood and unity and using the 6 ethnic groups as building blocks brought about a new federal organization under a constitution. In the 35 years Marshal Joseph Tito reigned, the constitution has been amended 5 times. Above all, the end of 1974 amendment bestowed on regions the power to decide on regional matters as a result of which Voyvodina and Kosovo achieved autonomy. These acts/developments were considered as conscious efforts to weaken the Serbs in the perception of Serbs. Hence, it opened a wide platform for a clandestine and open anti-Tito campaign within the people. Eventually, Joseph Tito died.
After the death of Joseph Tito, the prime minister who was thought to safeguard the unity of Yugoslavia, Kar Malic(born in Croatia), failed to rule the country while the party was weakened giving way for all the regions to be run by ethnic nationalist parties. Thus, the regions drifted away from the control of the federal government. Eventually, the political situation escalated and the election held amidst these developments, saw the coming into power of ethnic nationalist parties except in Montenegro. Serbian nationalist on their part brought their leader Slobodan Milosevic to power. Milosevic appointed Serbs in federal institutions that were instrumental in controlling everything. He fired those he believed will be obstacles including moderate Serbs and particularly Croats. However, to avoid long-term enmity, these people were posted at better-paying private organizations. All the media at the time categorized Croats, Slovenians, Kosovars, and Muslim Bosnians as opposed to a united Yugoslavia and heaped on them all other related charges. The Yugoslavia defense force was made up of 50% Serbs and in a climate of ethnic tension prevailing at the time, Milosevic took over the defense forces.
Besides, he abrogated the prevailing constitution and the invaded constitutional recognized Kosovo and took it under Serbia. The regions that were witnesses to this, especially Croatia and Slovenia realized the unavoidability of full military attack thus started building their own defense forces. They also started raising the case of statehood particularly Slovenia in 1990 amended their regional constitution to include the right to secede. At this time Yugoslavia descended into the same chaos that it was in before WWII and Marshal Tito. When the ethnic groups were seeking autonomy and for a confederation, the Milosevic government pushed back by referring to the 1974 Tito era constitution as a recipe for the break-up of the nation; done to weaken the Serbs, and full of intrigue. After a media campaign against Croatia under the banner of greater Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia were invaded in 1991. The Slovenian war cost the lives of 37 soldiers (132 of them were Slovenians)(sic) and it declared its independence. On the other hand, the Croatian and Bosnians wars resulted in a lot of bloodsheds. Above all, in the Serbian-Croatian war, more than 200,000 lives were lost and more than 1 million people were displaced but eventually, the international community intervened and the war came to an end. Yugoslavia broke up after 72 years and all the regions got their independence. Unlike Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia got its just end without resorting to violence. The facts of the two countries have their own distinct reasons. In Yugoslavia deficiency of equal treatment fueled by Serbia’s highly chauvinistic perspective, caused the consolidation mentality and the forceful military invasion led by the Serbs to suppress the other people and create a Serb-led country. It is clear to learn that whatever power one has unless there is equality and consideration and unless it is a matter of time, there is no subjugation and co-existence but only destruction of each other through bloodshed. In Czechoslovakia, there was no chauvinistic or forceful integration between the two, i.e., Czechs and Slovaks. The source of the problem or political conflict was like Yugoslavia. There was a group that wants to forcefully smother and subjugate others on the other side there are those that want preservation of their self-determination rights, and to live in equality and freedom. The Slovaks of Czechoslovakia were forwarding the idea that they were lagging behind Czechs because of the union. On the other hand, Czechs contend Slovakia is not economically contributing to the union. The secession issue was tabled by Slovakia but was accepted by the Czech Republic peacefully and they divided their assets and have gone their own ways.
What can we learn from this-the events that occurred in Yugoslavia clearly show our situation. The territorial integrity of our country was built by force and subjugation similar to the cruel intentions exhibited in Yugoslavia.
Their current situation gives us a clear picture of what their interest and attitude in the future are. Whether a country with diversity is created by subjugation or agreement force, in the absence of sustainable ground which ensures the nation live inequality regardless of the current situation the disintegration of the country is inevitable. The disintegration may be bloody. When it comes to our country, state-building in Ethiopia is achieved by the subjugation of all people. The existing difference among elites regarding equality is similar to what used to happened among Croat and Serve elites. The fundamental difference is that in our case: there are those who want to rule by destroying ethnic differences and those who wanted to remain within Ethiopia as long as they are the rulers. These basic diverging/conflicting interests live with us as a time bomb.
Ethiopia was on the edge of collapse after the fall of the Derg regime, demonstrating how history repeats itself. However, under the leadership of Melese Zenawi, the EPRDF saved Ethiopia from fragmentation, and the country survived for the following 27 years. In the same manner, after the end of the Second World War and the reign of Marshal Joseph Tito, Yugoslavia was on the verge of disintegration. But, Tito and his party saved Yugoslavia from disintegration and the country survived for 35 years. In both countries(Ethiopia and Yugoslavia ), after the collapse of the parties especially the pass away of the leaders who lead the change, even if the parties stayed for a while their successors were weak since they came from the party which is weakened by internal power struggle(Karmalik and Hailemariam Desalegn). In both countries after the collapse of revolutionary government and leaders, the replaced party’s and leaders were Unitarians and absolute dictators. In Ethiopia, it was Abiy Ahmed and in Yugoslavia, it was Slovodan Milosovich.
Even if they lived in different eras and continents as if they were born from the same uterus they have not only the same behavior but also are anti-people leaders. Abiy Ahmed has been doing all that Slovodan Milosovich had been doing. The only thing Abiy Ahmed left is a military invasion. Just as Milosevich launched a special invasion on Croatia, Abiy Ahmed for sure will invade Tigray if he could get power. In general, Ethiopia is now in a state of disintegration, just like Yugoslavia do when disintegrated. We did not know our destiny. Where shall we go?
When we refer to the experience of Switzerland, the Swiss while staying under a series of civil wars over centuries, later on, the main inhabitants of Romanian, German, Italian, and French nations reformed the federal system and were living together and this is a role model for the world.
Swiss experience- Switzerland has been embroiled in civil wars for centuries, with the main inhabitants being Roman, German, Italian, and French nations who have been living and building for a long time and are role models for the world under their new federal system. At the beginning of their constitution, they stated that “the people and the cantons (states) shall form the Swiss federal system of Switzerland.” The federal system is made up of 26 cantons, 20 full cantons, and 6 half cantons. Cantons have full sovereign power in their constitutions, this sovereignty is enshrined in their constitutions and does not violate the federal laws agreed upon by the constitution while the sovereignty of the states is protected, the rights of the regions to the state, the regions/cantons to the foreign governments, allow for greater rights. Moreover, state sovereignty is a law that the federal government has a duty to protect and defend, and requires the consent of Cantons and the people when it comes to creating or changing a new state.
In Switzerland, the political rights of the people are strictly enforced. Not only the election of the House of Representatives, but also the mandatory and optional referendum of the people, with a two-part referendum, the amendment of the Federal Constitution, the organization and coordination of the Common Security Emergency Proclamation, and the general amendment of the Federal Constitution and (Mandatory – Referendum) Alternative issues include federal laws, more than a year of emergency proclamation, federal government decisions related to the constitution, international agreements, which are expected to be approved by the federal parliament.
In general, the Swiss federal system, highest sovereign authority of the cantons/regions, A partial confederation not only ensures the direct participation of the people who have built a federal system but also prevents the creation of a violent central or federal government, effectively protects Cantons’ right to self-determination so that they do not become bullied. All federal government decisions and actions are measured by the interests of the cantons/states and the public. Overall, the founders of the four founding nations, the Romanian, and a few of Germany’s absolute majority, Italy and France, and many of them from Europe and other parts of the world, have achieved remarkable stability for more than 150 years. Switzerland’s stability can serve as a model for Ethiopia, which has been plagued by civil wars and destruction for the past 132 years.
The Canadian-Quebec experience. The federalism system is designed to be unified in nature, especially as the ever-evolving federal system, which provides special protection to French-speaking Quebec nations. The division of power between the central government and the provinces of Canada was practiced in the 18th century by the United States. Since the 1980s, with the rise of Quebec’s sovereignty, Canada’s federalism has been viewed as a major form of democracy. Accordingly, unlike other Provinces, Quebec is a region with a Legislative Council and a Second National Assembly, in order to have its own constitution as a sovereign state. The Canadian central government holds elections every five years, while Quebec holds elections every four years under its law, and there are special rights enshrined in the Quebec Constitution.
Quebec is sovereign and constitutional and has sovereign rights that this infringement of Quebec’s sovereignty does not infringe on its legal status, so long as the constitutional amendments in Canada do not harm Quebec. they have the right to abstain from voting in harmful cases. With the power to decide internal regional affairs on its own in matters ranging from training and has the right to create external relationships and relationships. It is empowered to establish relations, negotiate, represent Quebec in international affairs, and connect with international and international institutions.
Citizens of Quebec have sufficient legal and institutional guarantees of their right to self-determination to the point of secession. In general, Quebec is a unitary state of Canada, but it is a unitary state based on Canadian sovereignty, which includes the territorial, public, and administrative freedoms that a state must meet. They have continued to reject secession. Sufficient two-dimensional experiences have emerged. Diversity-based countries ensuring a complete peace and development transition and sustainable journey that is being fully reformed by the Forum for Sovereignty Freedom and Unity and Destruction, cannibalism, and disintegration of those who could not go. Some experience from Yugoslavia and the other is from Switzerland and Canada. Where are we?
2.4.3. What does the future hold for Ethiopia and the People of Tigray?
I. The last message we have so far clearly understood from our experience and the experience of the other countries is that Ethiopia, with its diversity, will no longer be able to move forward with its unitary imperialist structure. The collapse of the unitary state system has changed everything. To ensure the universal fundamental rights that are enshrined in the constitution are respected, it is our duty and the right strategy to fight strategically until the enemy (Abiy) is defeated. If we fail to achieve these goals, we will not be able to move on to the next chapter. Nonetheless, it is not possible to continue with a reformed constitutional order – the covenant has been broken. As things stand now, not only it is impossible to continues with the reformed system, it is unsustainable to continue with even greater improvements.
II. Some issues were considered as key considerations for the building of a multi-national state. The ideology of developmental democracy must be strengthened and developed, the struggle against oppression must be intensified, narrow-nationalism and chauvinism must be discouraged and democratic ethnic-nationalism must be nurtured, and the rent-seeking political economy should be replaced by developmentalism. Though our ideology pointed out the real risks, we hoped that development and societal progress can go hand in hand. In many cases, we have seen the risk, no one can imagine a scenario where the EPRDF survives and strengthens developmental democracy where the class struggle takes the center stage and narrow and chauvinistic nationalisms are reduced to meaninglessness. Or elites from two of the most populous ethnic groups in the country (Amhara and Oromo) keep fighting to advance their backward narrow-nationalist and chauvinistic nationalisms that will certainly end in war, mutual destruction, and an endless cycle of conflict.
III. The nation and nationalities of Ethiopia will not survive without a radical change in a new system of government and politics that takes into account the realities of the world and the lessons learned from the other counties. There are two options to change the violent state formation history of Ethiopia. The first one is re-structuring and transitional the federal system in such a way that the responsibility of administrative power and security and international relations authority should be transferred to the sovereignty of regional states. A loose federal state can be established, that focuses on issues related to ensuring the right to movement, property, and resolving disputes between states and other specifically agreed issues.
No matter what the name may be, such a radical change, as in Switzerland, is inevitable. Whether we like it or not, the above option is the only option that prevents the disintegration of the country by protecting the interest of all. If that doesn’t happen, the country will be moving into nation-state-building. No nation, nationalities, or ethnic group will accept and settle for an assimilationist state. No ethnic group in the country will keep quiet if the loose federal arrangement is established. It has never been seen in history. This is what we have learned from all failed empires. Therefore, there is no alternative but to implement solutions that are as deployed in the case of the peoples of Czechoslovakia or Switzerland. Although we don’t prefer it, there is always the option of bloody disintegration. Only the loose
federal option brings the urgent return of developmental democracy makes it narrow and chauvinist nationalism loses ground. Without wasting time, the people of Tigray and its organization TPLF should make a stand based on one of the two choices.
2.4.4. Final Solution to Tigrean people’s sustainable/continued benefit/advantage! Never again!
I. Through sacrifice they paid after a long and bitter armed struggle, the Tigrean people won an astonishing victory. Following that, instead of leaving the country to decide its fate on its own, the Tigrean people dismantled the long-standing Minilik’s unified Empire and heralded a newly formed project of a country in which people live in unity and equality. In so doing, in collaboration with their comrades/partners, the people of Tigray made a historical contribution of saving the country from the brink of dismemberment/collapse. It ensured an alternative way of existing as a country and a nation. Nevertheless, before making sure that the oppressive system they had toppled down would never revive, the Tigrean people found themselves in the midst of counteroffensive by the enemy determined to take them back to oppression and exploitation of a hegemonic unitary rule. The fight/struggle the Tigrean people have encountered from the unitary rule which is in power is has resurfaced after 27 years.
II. Since the Tigrean people are fighting for their own survival, they have no option other than winning/ securing victory. Nevertheless, while defending their survival, they should think of the way forward, take lessons/ learn from their past journey and make sure such things will never happen again. Instead, they need to speedily break this vortex and move to the top which results in reliable transformation/change that needs to be implemented. This is an issue that doesn’t give time to the Tigrean people of Tigray and it has to be fired up. There must be an understanding/a consensus that it should be cleared. This is keeping in mind the need to strengthen the readiness and the sacrifice required of every individual. No consensus has actually been on what is to be done after Abiy clique goes. There is a need to come up with some initiative at the level of the organization and further discuss and debate the idea among the Tigrean elite regarding the fate of Tigray. How can we sustainably guarantee our way/journey? That shouldn’t be as a surprise as a wrapped-up gift article to be opened on the final day.
III. Thus, making our position of ensuring our sustained/continued advantage official, we need to have extensive debates and discussions/dialogues in our organization, in governments, among our people, and the elite. That way, we should be able to reach a consensus and gather and strengthen essential competence for our defensive move. Based on this, it is worth raising this question: “Prior to which option, should we consider a useful position? While raising this question, it is important to note a few points related to our position. First and foremost, we will never accept an enslaving unitary rule whatever misery we might face; we can never think of that. We don’t need the kind of assigned equality and unity that put us in a harmful vortex/quagmire. The existing federal arrangement/ change promised to prevent us from quagmire and issues planned to be changed should never again endanger our survival.
IV. Our position should avoid distorted unity and trends of secession. In connection with unity, in one way or another, there have been distorted teachings. Entertaining the distorted idea that Tigray is too impoverished to survive independent of Ethiopia is psychologically defeatist and it leads to compromising the security of Tigray and it presents it as an entity with no other option in Ethiopian politics. Beyond that, this idea unnecessarily overstretches the benefit of unity and assumes that there is no option other than unity. Instead of considering unity and freedom as a means to bring continued advantages, this idea assumes that unity and freedom are an end in themselves. In short, it is no use to consider the available options as an end themselves. Instead, they should be weighed based on the objective reality and in light of the continued benefit they bring.
V. (It is important to question) the outlook that assumes there is no option other than living with Ethiopia –a notion that emanates out of concern for ancient Ethiopia and nostalgia for our ancient history that has tied us with a knot that is so inseparable. Linked with this is the notion that Eritrea, South Sudan, and other countries have gained nothing following their secession/separation but poverty, repression, migration, and worsening livelihood. The notion that since Eritrea (despite its port) and South Sudan (albeit having rich oil resources) gained nothing implies that what awaits is worse and threatens the security of Tigray. A question of secession/ separation that is emotion-driven would be something imposed on us and gauged by the temperature of the moment, and not led by our plan. Moreover, such kind of secession is something that is unmindful of opportunities and challenges within and outside the country and is likely to fail. Additionally, failure to take clear direction/ line and being in a dilemma of acting today or tomorrow might let us lose our opportunities and put us in a problem. We should thus make our ideas accessible to our people.
VI. As people, we have got two options at our disposal: remaining to be part of Ethiopia or to be an independent nation and form an independent nation-state. Currently, instead of seceding, we need to exhaust every opportunity available in this county. The key question/the crux of the matter here is to be able to answer which arrangement suits us best and to reach a full consensus on that. Based on this, the new fundamental change, whatever its name might be, should let us exercise our rights related to ethnic, political, economic, security-related, national, and international institutional matters. It should also allow us to fully exercise our autonomy and grants our constitutional rights by creating a platform in which we, in agreement with other nations/regions contribute to the federal government which is not beyond collaboration. The new fundamental change should ensure a situation where the federal government wouldn’t interfere in our region and wouldn’t be a decision-making body. It should let us grow in our way and impede our journey and should instead support us while we struggle.
VII. The people of Tigray have been making a lot of sacrifices while the country was still divided and since the beginning of the formation of Ethiopia as a nation-state. In the process of their journey, they were able to make a distinction between the public at large and the reactionary forces and work for building common benefits, change, and national prosperity. The struggle over the last 17 years—the time in which strong sacrifice was paid is of recent memory. The sufferings, oppression, misery caused on the Tigrean people by reactionary forces were innumerable. At the same time, the people of Tigray have come up with a new project of sustaining by way of developing/flourishing what has been achieved so far. If this project succeeds, we prefer to live together. If that can’t happen, it is high time for the people of Tigray to form and build the Tigrian Nation-state. In the years to come, there would be an appropriate time for the people of Tigray to secure their journey. In a way, that will be the final historical move that we need to fight for.
VIII. This is more or less the general/overall direction. Once we agree on this, we will establish/form a huge committee with different sub-committees composed of the people at large and intellectuals who have democratic outlooks, who are disciplined, capable, and professional. We will then let the work begin by doing everything to convince the public using well-articulated/analyzed ideas. Along with this, it is important to create a condition by which we can obtain critical input to fundamentally improve the constitution of our ethnic group (i.e. nation)/ region. In general, as has been repeatedly pointed out in this article, based on the obstacles and challenges we faced in our history as well as the survival challenges we have currently encountered and in light of the natural formation of this country and keeping in mind the experiences of the last 27 years, we need to fully implement it (the project) making our advantage at the center of it and demonstrating what advantages like-minded nations and nationalities can gain [from the project] In ensuring a solution for our people’s lasting security, we will undertake two intertwined fundamental issues. The first and foremost of this tactical struggle is to overthrow Abey’s group (clique), restore our constitution and form a provisional government that would enable us to make a transition and that would be a grand implementation in accomplishing what we have started. This new solution should be accomplished as part of our ongoing struggle. [Such tasks] are not sequential. Instead, they should be tightly intertwined, go along with each other as fundamental duties of the provisional transitional government.
IX. The acceptability and feasibility of the issue/idea
In general, the issue being raised now in the Ethiopian political arena would be a new and historic forum where [political] forces clearly position themselves and furiously fight in a huge and deep-rooted confrontation. Following the collapse or capitulation of Abey’s group, and once he is forced to form a transitional provisional government, the council to be created, it would work towards the implementation, i.e., the change and solution for a permanent state. If we move in the direction we set, there would be a high possibility of having a council with a majority representation of ethnic groups. There is also a high probability that representatives of ethnic groups would accept the tactical and lasting solution. The main concern here is how nations, nationalities, and peoples would view the issue.
X. The People of Tigray: The majority of the Tigrean elite would not only accept the current solution but also ignite in building a strong political unity and psychological supremacy to transform it into a bright future. So shall the leaders of our political party and government. As a result, the people of Tigray, with the strength it may show, would have a strong influence in the country’s politics and be a potent force in a key power balance. Although the Oromo people and their elite may vacillate, since the basic power would be in the hands of the regions, they would accept and work towards its implementation for it would be in their interest to secure majority representation as in the lower [council?]. In the Ethiopian political stage, the two key actors would be the Tigreans and the Oromo – they would properly support each other.
XI. The third useful actor would be the Amhara people and elite. Although the basic needs of the people are not different from that of other people, the Amhara elite may confuse and divide them. The Amhara elite, particularly the chauvinist circle and its followers would be not only anti-change and but also anti-reform. In addition, they are against the existing federation and constitution. Therefore, [this group] would act in unison with its dominating outlook in all the structures and networks internally and outside [the country]. That would also include the marketability of politics. There could be nations, nationalities, and peoples particularly in the south whose future fate and hope maybe blink due to different reasons. It is possible to embrace them by understanding their existing problems in a way that could solve them. By and large, the Tigreans and the Oromo as well as the four frontier ethnic groups and some of the southern peoples can prevent the Amhara chauvinist elites and other ethnic groups from becoming a decisive political force. To some extent, as the country is disintegrating, and since the basis of unity is still there, that may embrace the moderate Amhara group, if at all the balance of forces is strengthened. In any case, that is becoming the only way with no other option.
XII. The foreign forces, including the nearby Esayas’s group as well as those forces of the western world that do not want Ethiopia’s stability may try to intervene to safeguard their international and regional interest if they think their interest is threatened (at stake). Even then, the key and decisive point is internal strength. But these countries and the international community would take into consideration, the essence of change in relation to their interest, how it could not be contrary to their interest, the impending danger, and devastation in the event of the country’s disintegration, how that could damage their interest, how could peace and stability be created in the region, how could that bring about a new phenomenon in the geopolitics of the region, how could it cause turmoil and the danger of disintegration which is evident and beyond that how could they find out a solution that may bring about lasting development and cooperation and finally that may be worked out in an organized manner. In this regard, it is possible to move towards common understanding and mutual support.
XIII. Thus, by changing the country’s state structure, the TPLF and the people of Tigray can emerge successfully by strengthening its unwavering historic place to ensure a lasting interest. In order to expand this kindling influence in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, the people of Tigray and our party, the TPLF would glamorously emerge with a new option and solution. In the political landscape of Tigray, this will be a new chapter. This victory would expand our opportunity to maintain developmental democracy that in turn heralds our long-term goals. In any case, to accomplish one of them, like yesterday, we have to be internally strong, now and then. We are currently transforming our negotiating power to the highest point in a de facto manner. To that end, everybody should work towards the [common goal].
We shall maintain our position for defense.
We are winners
October 10, 2020